The passing of Pope Francis on April 21 initiated a period of mourning within the Catholic Church and simultaneously sparked the competition for his replacement.
This list highlights 15 cardinals, including diplomats, theologians, mediators, and Vatican insiders, who are considered potential frontrunners, or “papabili,” categorised by region.
However, this list is not comprehensive, and Francis’s successor may very well be someone not mentioned here.
EUROPE
Pietro Parolin (Italy), 70, Vatican Secretary of State
Serving as the Vatican’s chief diplomat, Parolin has held the position of number two at the Vatican for nearly the entirety of Francis’s papacy. He is well-connected with many global leaders due to his extensive travel, as well as with numerous individuals within the Roman Curia, the governance body of the Holy See.
As a member of Francis’s Council of Cardinals, an advisory group, Parolin played a significant role in the landmark 2018 agreement between the Holy See and China regarding the appointment of bishops.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy), 60, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem
As the leading Catholic figure in the Middle East, Pizzaballa oversees an archdiocese that includes Israel, the Palestinian territories, Jordan, and Cyprus. He became a cardinal in September 2023, just before the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas.
The Franciscan has consistently called for peace from both sides and led masses in both Gaza and Jerusalem during Christmas 2024.
Matteo Maria Zuppi (Italy), 69, Archbishop of Bologna
Zuppi, a member of the Roman community of Sant’Egidio, has acted as a subtle diplomat for the Vatican for over thirty years and has served as Pope Francis’s special envoy for peace in Ukraine.
Popular for his advocacy on behalf of the needy, Zuppi is also known for cycling around Bologna. He promotes the integration of migrants and gay Catholics into the Church. Since 2022, he has served as the president of the Italian Episcopal Conference (CEI).
Claudio Gugerotti (Italy), 69
A diplomat and polyglot from Verona, Gugerotti specialises in Slavic affairs. He has served as a nuncio, or ambassador of the Holy See, in several countries, including the United Kingdom, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Ukraine.
Consulted by Pope Francis during the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, Gugerotti was appointed Prefect of the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches in 2022.
Jean-Marc Aveline (France), Archbishop of Marseille, 66
Hailing from Algeria, Aveline has spent the majority of his life in Marseille and is a notable figure in the southern French port city.
He is regarded as a close confidant of Pope Francis, having been appointed Auxiliary Bishop of Marseille in 2013 and elevated to the cardinalate in 2022.
The warm and friendly Aveline has championed interfaith and intercultural dialogue, as well as migrant advocacy, which are central themes of Pope Francis’s papacy.
Anders Arborelius (Sweden), 75, Bishop of Stockholm
Appointed in 2017 as Sweden’s first cardinal, Arborelius converted to Catholicism in a predominantly Protestant nation characterised by one of the world’s most secular societies.
He is the first Catholic bishop in Sweden since the Protestant Reformation and remains a steadfast defender of Church doctrine, opposing the ordination of women as deacons and the blessing of same-sex couples.
Similar to Pope Francis, Arborelius supports the acceptance of migrants to Europe, encompassing Christians, Catholics, and potential converts.
Mario Grech (Malta), 68, former Bishop of Gozo
Grech serves as the secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, a group that gathers insights from local churches on significant Church issues—such as the role of women and remarried divorced individuals—and conveys this information to the pope.
He has had to skillfully navigate a complex balance, following Pope Francis’s example to foster an open and receptive Church while also recognising the concerns of traditionalists.
He has acknowledged the importance of “fraternal dialogue” among Catholics at all levels while reassuring conservatives that the Church is “not a democracy; the Church is hierarchical”.
Peter Erdo, 72, Metropolitan Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest
Erdo is recognised as an intellectual and a respected authority in canon law, capable of speaking seven languages and having written over 25 books, known for his openness towards other faiths.
However, his connections with the administration of nationalistic Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose stringent anti-migrant stance contrasts with Pope Francis’s views, have drawn scrutiny in the past.
Known for his passion for evangelism, the cardinal, who grew up under Communism, holds conservative views on issues including same-sex marriage and divorcees who remarry.
Jean-Claude Hollerich, 67, Archbishop of Luxembourg
As a Jesuit like Pope Francis, Hollerich has dedicated over two decades to his time in Japan and specialises in European-Asian cultural relationships as well as German literature.
While firm on doctrinal issues, the theologian recognises the necessity for the Church to evolve with societal changes, reminiscent of the Argentine pope he admires and for whom he served as an advisor on the Council of Cardinals.
Hollerich has championed environmental causes and encouraged greater involvement of laypeople, particularly young people, in the Church.
ASIA
Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines), 67, former Metropolitan Archbishop of Manila
Tagle, a charismatic moderate and a leading candidate for papacy from Asia, has candidly critiqued the Church’s failings, including its handling of sexual abuse cases involving minors.
Fluent in English, he is an articulate speaker known for his self-deprecating humour and, like Francis, is a strong advocate for the impoverished, migrants, and marginalised groups.
Affectionately known as “Chito,” he was appointed a cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2012 and had previously been considered for the papacy during the 2013 conclave that led to Francis’s election.
Charles Maung Bo (Myanmar), 76, Archbishop of Yangon
As president of the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences, Maung Bo became the first and only cardinal of Myanmar, appointed by Pope Francis in 2015.
He has called for dialogue and reconciliation in a conflict-stricken Myanmar and appealed for non-violence among opposition protesters following the military coup in 2021. He has also advocated for the rights of the persecuted Rohingya, who are primarily Muslim.
AFRICA
Peter Turkson (Ghana), 76, former Archbishop of Cape Coast
Turkson is regarded as one of the most influential African cardinals in the Church and is frequently mentioned as a potential first black pope. However, in 2010, he stated that he did not desire the position, remarking that any such pope would “face significant challenges.”
He holds the position of Chancellor at the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences.
Growing up in a modest family with ten children, Turkson is multilingual, speaking six languages, and has participated in the World Economic Forum in Davos multiple times to persuade business leaders about the dangers of trickle-down economics.
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of Congo), 65, serves as the Archbishop of Kinshasa.
Ambongo is the sole African cardinal on Pope Francis’s Council of Cardinals, an advisory group to the Pope.
As the president of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, he co-signed a letter in January 2024 opposing the Vatican’s statement that permits priests to perform non-liturgical blessings for same-sex unions.
In a 2023 interview, Ambongo declared, “It is clear that Africa represents the future of the Church.”
AMERICAS
Robert Francis Prevost (United States), 69, is the Archbishop-Bishop emeritus of Chiclayo.
Originally from Chicago, Prevost currently holds the position of prefect for the influential Dicastery for Bishops, which advises the pope on the selection of new bishops.
He dedicated many years to missionary work in Peru and holds the title of Archbishop-Bishop emeritus of Chiclayo in that nation.
Made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2023, he also presides over the Pontifical Commission for Latin America.
Timothy Dolan (United States), 75, is the Archbishop of New York.
Dolan, a cheerful and extroverted man with Irish-American heritage, is a theological conservative who strongly opposes abortion.
Having previously served as the archbishop of Milwaukee, he managed the repercussions of a significant sexual abuse crisis within that diocese.
In New York, as Church attendance dwindles, Dolan has made efforts to connect with the increasing Hispanic community, which predominantly identifies as Catholic.
