The COP30 summit, set to take place in Brazil this November, was once expected to mark a major milestone in the global fight against climate change.
But with the clock ticking on the 1.5°C global warming target, the lead-up to the talks has been overshadowed by worsening global conflicts and political setbacks.
Despite initial optimism following President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s successful bid to host the climate conference in the heart of the Amazon, Brazil has yet to present a bold proposal to steer the talks, leaving climate experts uneasy about the summit’s potential impact.
Tensions across multiple continents and the United States’ retreat from international cooperation on climate and health have further dampened hopes. Meanwhile, last week’s preparatory UN climate meeting in Bonn, Germany, ended in deadlock over key issues such as climate finance.
“Brazil is an experienced climate negotiator, but the global backdrop has never been this dire,” said Claudio Angelo from Brazil’s Climate Observatory.
Patricia Espinosa, former UN climate chief, warned that Brazil may have to temper expectations. “One of the strongest messages COP30 must deliver is a unified front on multilateralism and global cooperation. Failing to do that would have severe consequences,” she told AFP. “Failure is not an option.”
In recent years, COP summits have delivered headline achievements—from securing commitments to move away from fossil fuels to establishing a fund to support countries suffering climate-related loss and damage.
But COP30 may prove more challenging. According to Summit CEO Ana Toni, many of the ambitious goals from the 2015 Paris Agreement have already been agreed upon, and now the focus must shift to ensuring they are implemented.
Much of the momentum is expected to come before the summit even begins, as nations prepare to submit updated climate plans. These include major players like China, India, and the EU, whose new commitments could significantly shape the outcome of COP30.
However, experts anticipate that the latest round of national pledges will fall short of keeping warming below the critical 1.5°C threshold—or even the fallback goal of 2°C.
COP30 will likely be forced to respond to this gap, Toni said, though what form that response might take remains unclear.
The uncertainty is especially worrying for vulnerable nations. Anne Rasmussen, the lead negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, said the group is deeply concerned about the lack of clarity. “Our survival depends on reaching 1.5°C,” she told AFP.
The debate over how nations will fulfil their commitment to transition away from fossil fuels is expected to be another flashpoint in Belém.
Brazil has included the concept of a fossil fuel transition schedule in its climate plan, which campaigners hope it will champion. But recent decisions to auction oil and gas drilling rights near the mouth of the Amazon River have undermined confidence in its environmental leadership.
Claudio Angelo criticised the move as a form of “sabotage,” especially given its timing, just as international delegates were meeting in Bonn.
Brazil is also expected to prioritise forest conservation, while ongoing talks are likely to revisit unresolved issues from previous COPs, such as a global goal on climate adaptation.
However, the scale of geopolitical conflict may restrict new ambitions. Yalchin Rafiyev, Azerbaijan’s chief climate negotiator and host of last year’s summit, said the focus should be on protecting past achievements rather than risking them in a push for greater ambition.
“Trying and failing to go further could damage the entire UN climate framework,” he warned.
Still, veteran participants argue that slow progress is better than none. “There’s no alternative process that can tackle a threat to humanity this immense,” Espinosa said.
