Leaders of the BRICS group of emerging economies are set to gather in Rio de Janeiro from Sunday, although the summit will be marked by the notable absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping – his first time missing the annual meeting in 12 years.
The absence of Xi, who has overseen China’s growing influence within the bloc since taking office in 2012, comes without explanation from Beijing. His decision not to attend in person has sparked speculation, particularly as the group faces mounting tensions with the United States, including the threat of impending trade tariffs.
Ryan Hass, a former director for China at the US National Security Council, suggested Xi’s absence could be due to several factors, including having recently hosted Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Beijing and the diplomatic optics of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi being the guest of honour in Brazil.
“Xi may not wish to be overshadowed by Modi,” Hass remarked, adding that the decision to send Premier Li Qiang in his place may reflect broader strategic calculations.
Also missing from the summit will be Russian President Vladimir Putin, who remains under an international arrest warrant. He will attend virtually, as will Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose country is still recovering from a recent conflict with Israel.
For President Lula, the absence of two of BRICS’ most prominent leaders is a setback.
Brazil had hoped to use the summit to assert its role as a key global player, ahead of hosting a G20 summit, COP30 climate talks, and preparing for a high-stakes presidential election in 2026. Lula is expected to seek a fourth term in office.
Economic cooperation will be central to the summit’s agenda.
On Friday, Lula once again called for BRICS nations to explore alternatives to the US dollar for conducting trade, describing reliance on the greenback as a holdover from a bygone era.
“I understand the political hurdles,” Lula said at a BRICS bank meeting, “but without a new approach, we risk ending this century the same way we began the last.”
Yet with the US preparing to impose steep tariffs on imports, including a threat of 100 per cent tariffs on nations challenging the dollar’s dominance, BRICS leaders are expected to tread carefully.
Experts anticipate a subdued tone, with any criticism of Washington likely to be veiled or omitted altogether from the final communiqué.
“This isn’t the moment to stir tensions with the US, particularly for China,” said Marta Fernandez, director of the BRICS Policy Centre in Rio. “The group will likely be cautious.”
The BRICS group, originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, and China, has expanded to include South Africa, as well as recent additions Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, the UAE, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. The enlarged bloc now accounts for nearly half of the world’s population and 40 per cent of global GDP.
While this expansion has boosted the group’s global significance, it has also made consensus-building more complex.
Disparate national interests, especially over relations with the US and conflicts in the Middle East, have made unified positions harder to achieve.
Earlier this year, the bloc failed to release a joint statement on the Israel-Iran clashes and US retaliation, revealing internal divisions.
“The diversity of perspectives within BRICS makes unified action more difficult,” said political analyst Oliver Stuenkel.
Despite these challenges, Brazil remains optimistic. Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said he hopes member states will agree on common positions, including the Middle East and reforms to global governance structures. Artificial intelligence will also be on the agenda.
