The Nigerian government’s plan to ban solar imports is fraught with far-reaching economic and strategic contradictions. While Minister of Science and Technology Uche Nnaji’s stated goals for this ban are to strengthen local manufacturing and promote renewable energy independence, his approach will actually worsen energy poverty, delay our energy transition goals, derail investment and trigger inflation in Nigeria’s nascent solar energy market.
Solar currently contributes less than 0.5% to Nigeria’s electricity generation mix, which is overwhelmingly dominated by gas-based thermal energy at 70%. The national grid delivers a daily average of only 5,700 megawatts (MW), with the highest peak generation recorded at 6,003 megawatts (MW) in April 2025.
Driven by unreliable power, rising fossil fuel costs, and intensifying heatwaves, Nigeria’s off-grid and embedded solar systems now contribute an estimated 1,000 MW to the country’s power supply, and the self-generation capacity has already surpassed the grid-based supply. Data from Stears shows that Nigerians now generate over 45,000 MW of electricity independently through diesel and petrol generators. Captive, off-grid generation, primarily by industries such as Dangote Group, has risen to 6,000 MW.
This nascent energy independence is exactly what Nnaji’s solar ban will stifle. A sudden ban on solar imports without corresponding domestic production will raise costs, limit access and delay adoption, hurting households, businesses, and key projects backed by development agencies and the Rural Electrification Agency (REA).
The most pressing problem is Nigeria’s lack of a functional solar supply chain. Nigeria lacks the infrastructure needed to manufacture solar panels at scale. While there is some silica mining activity in areas like Lagos, Ondo and Akwa Ibom, there is no industrial-wide production of polysilicon; the essential input in solar PV cells. Other critical minerals such as cadmium, cobalt and lithium are either underexplored or produced in negligible quantities.
The fragmented and inefficient supply chain hinders large-scale manufacturing and market demand. Addressing this necessitates a comprehensive federal policy that integrates fiscal incentives, public-private infrastructure partnerships, and logistics upgrades to build resilient, vertically integrated industry clusters. This approach should prioritise co-locating suppliers and manufacturers in regional hubs, supported by workforce development programs to ensure skills alignment with advanced production ecosystems. Without this ecosystem infrastructure, Nigeria cannot build a strong local manufacturing capacity for solar.
Some officials continue to argue that the country has sufficient local capacity to meet its solar panel needs. Agencies such as the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI) cite projects like the $172 million Nasarawa plant, but it remains largely non-operational. A quick look at urban markets reveals the opposite—a heavy reliance on imports, with locally made panels nearly non-existent. Without verified production figures or a clear inventory of manufacturers, such policy positions are premature and potentially misleading.
NASENI and the Ministry of Science and Technology shouldn’t be assembling panels – they should be mapping supply chains and connecting markets. This includes identifying players across mining, processing, manufacturing and distribution. Their role isn’t to make panels but to create markets and supply chains: connect silica miners with manufacturers, help finance research into PV efficiency and regulate imports to avoid dumping of substandard equipment.
Next, the government should act as a catalyst, not as a gatekeeper. It should play a catalytic role in creating markets through tax holidays, import duty waivers for raw materials, single-digit financing options for solar start-ups, as China did, and support for research and development. Incentives must be directed toward building a competitive domestic ecosystem, not disrupting markets with any ban.
If the government seeks to reduce imports in the long run, create an environment where local production becomes cheaper and more reliable. Once local supply increases, market forces will naturally reduce dependency on foreign panels. That’s how you drive down costs, scale adoption, and attract investment. They need to incentivise the entire supply chain through tax breaks for miners and processors, low-interest loans for manufacturers, and subsidies for research and development – the same tools that worked for China and Brazil.
There’s also the emerging field of long-duration energy storage (L-DES), which can address solar’s inefficiency problems. Most panels today lose 70% of the energy they absorb; L-DES could help reduce that and increase energy retention. Our universities, especially the Federal Universities of Technology, should be central to this research and development effort. NASENI should fund these institutions to drive innovation in energy storage, battery design and solar panel efficiency.
History shows us that protectionist policies often breed cartels, not competition. Without competition, local manufacturers may fix prices arbitrarily, limiting accessibility and affordability for consumers. For solar, a sudden ban will not only inflate prices but may create a “solar cartel,” mirroring the dynamics seen in the downstream petroleum sector. Venture-backed solar firms with limited capacity could become the sole suppliers, charging prices out of reach for millions of Nigerians already in the throes of darkness.
Even worse, sudden bans discourage investors. Abrupt, unilateral policy shifts cast doubt on Nigeria’s credibility and commitment to clean energy. This could be a disruptive blow to our Paris Agreement targets and the Energy Transition Plan (ETP), which aims for 60% clean energy by 2050, with solar playing a major role. Off-grid solutions are key to closing the access gap for over 86 million Nigerians still without electricity.
China didn’t ban first. It built up the supply chain and made connections. Only after creating massive over-capacity did it introduce protections, and now it’s the global leader in solar with over 886 GW installed. Why does Nigeria want to reverse that logic? The 2019 border closure and rice import ban worsened inflation and food insecurity without fixing local production or distribution. A solar ban could repeat the same mistakes.
Instead of reaching for the blunt instrument of prohibition, Nigeria should adopt a more measured, strategic approach. Policy coherence, data-driven planning and institutional alignment are key markers. Without comprehensive data, policymakers cannot identify energy deficits, design and implement strategies that address the specific needs of the energy sector. This deficiency leads to misaligned incentives and inefficient allocation of resources. In this vacuum, the instinct to announce bans becomes a way to appear decisive without doing the difficult work of capacity building.
With the right data, Nigeria could easily integrate solutions that align incentives with sector needs and invest in local manufacturing and workforce development. It’s really a plug-and-play situation. Agencies like NASENI must refocus their mandate toward ecosystem coordination, supply chain development, and research infrastructure, not product assembly.
The clean energy transition isn’t a slogan; it’s a developmental necessity that demands data-driven strategies. Nigeria’s energy future will not be shaped by outright bans, but by investing in the foundational systems that make solar energy truly accessible and transformative; a free, competitive solar market, robust supply chains, supportive investment ecosystems and sound regulatory frameworks will lead to mass production. The path ahead is antithetical to any U-turn at this point. The country needs a smarter approach, one grounded in data and executed correctly.
Basil Abia is a research and policy consultant who supports think tanks, senior public offices, startups, civic engagement, and development projects in the Global South. He is also the co-founder of Veriv Africa, a research and advisory company that synthesises information into actionable intelligence in Africa.
