As South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir returns from a 10-day trip abroad, officially billed as an economic mission, reports suggest he was undergoing medical tests—reviving longstanding concerns over the 73-year-old leader’s health and fuelling speculation about a carefully orchestrated succession plan.
Kiir landed back in Juba on Wednesday from the United Arab Emirates, with state media portraying the visit as a push for economic cooperation. However, several members of his delegation, speaking anonymously, confirmed that the trip was for medical assessments, confirming years of rumours about his deteriorating health.
Since achieving independence in 2011, South Sudan has suffered from chronic instability and poverty, including a brutal civil war from 2013 to 2018 that left around 400,000 people dead. Now, fresh political turbulence has emerged—analysts believe it stems from Kiir’s efforts to position his successor amid fears about his fitness to rule.
The president’s apparent heir is businessman Benjamin Bol Mel, a contentious figure with close ties to the ruling elite. Once known for his construction empire and management of the Kiir family’s finances, Bol Mel was sanctioned by the United States in 2017 over allegations of corruption. Nevertheless, Kiir has elevated him swiftly through the ranks—appointing him as second vice-president in February and deputy leader of the ruling party in May.
In recent months, Kiir has moved to neutralise opposition figures. His long-time rival, former rebel leader Riek Machar, was placed under house arrest in March, and many of Machar’s allies have reportedly been detained. Military offensives have targeted bases linked to Machar’s Nuer ethnic group, with more than 700 people killed in clashes between January and March, according to the United Nations.

Despite widespread speculation, any discussion of Kiir’s health is strictly taboo in official circles. “If you want to visit a grave quickly, talk about it,” one activist told AFP, requesting anonymity due to fears for their safety.
Nonetheless, signs of the president’s frailty were visible. During an April meeting with Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, observers noted Kiir’s difficulty walking in contrast to the sprightly 80-year-old Museveni. In May, the foreign ministry was forced to issue a public denial that Kiir had died, following rumours on social media. Even footage of his return this week carefully avoided showing him walking.
In his absence, Bol Mel chaired the cabinet meeting—seen by observers as a further step in a carefully staged transition. “It seems to be a script written long ago and now being executed in phases,” said Wani Michael, a former civil society activist now in exile. “They had to remove Riek Machar to clear the way for Bol Mel,” he added.
Kiir also dismissed long-serving intelligence chief Akol Koor in October, removing yet another potential rival. According to a diplomat in Juba, Bol Mel has since “consolidated control of the security forces” by installing loyalists and now wields influence over both security and financial institutions.
Despite an increase in violence, fears of a full-scale war have not materialised. “It’s devastating on a humanitarian level, but nowhere near the scale of the previous massacres,” said the same diplomat, noting that the government has succeeded in suppressing armed rebellions so far.
Machar’s faction has responded only minimally to military aggression, and internal divisions have weakened his political movement.
Still, Bol Mel’s path to power remains uncertain. “The government lacks legitimacy at home and abroad,” warned local analyst James Boboya, pointing to the continued delay of national elections. South Sudan has yet to hold its first-ever democratic vote, which was once again postponed in 2023—this time to 2026.
“Elections are the only viable way to achieve a peaceful transfer of power,” said Edmund Yakani, director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organisation. “Our future must be shaped by the ballot, not the bullet, and not by leaders forced upon us.”