Leading investment banking firm Comercio Partners Limited has projected that the naira could weaken to N1,700 per dollar by the end of the first half of 2025 under its worst-case scenario.
Over the weekend, the naira gained N45 against the dollar in the parallel market, continuing a week-on-week appreciation trend.
A review of foreign exchange (FX) trading from Monday, February 3, to Friday, February 7, 2025, showed that the naira strengthened by N40, improving from N1,610 to N1,565 per dollar at the black market.
In its 2025 Macro Economic Outlook report, titled “Looking Forward to The Future,” Comercio Partners highlighted that Nigeria’s exchange rate has seen a notable boost since December, following the injection of $2.2 billion from a Eurobond issuance.
“Nigeria’s history of Eurobond issuances reveals a consistent pattern: brief periods of naira appreciation followed by inevitable declines,” the report indicated.
The report emphasised that sustaining the naira’s appreciation and overall economic resilience will require a holistic, coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal authorities in the years ahead.
“Having analysed all the Eurobonds performances during high inflows of FPI, our outlook for the naira going forward in the next six months is around N1,700,” the Head of Investment Research and Global Macro Strategist, Dr Ifeanyi Ubah, who presented the report, said.
The CEO of Comercio Partners Capital, Stephen Osho, has projected that the naira will continue to appreciate, citing several key factors driving its recent strength. These include an increase in FX inflows, improved market liquidity, and greater clarity from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on clearing foreign exchange (FX) backlogs.
Regarding inflation, Comercio Partners forecasts that headline inflation could drop to as low as 15% in the first half of 2025, signaling a gradual return to economic stability.
