The death toll from Sudan’s ongoing war is likely to be significantly underestimated, according to a study by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).
Focusing on Khartoum State, the study estimated that more than 61,000 people died of all causes between April 2023 and June 2024, a 50% rise in the pre-war death rate. Of these, 26,000 were directly linked to violence—a figure that exceeds the 20,178 deaths reported nationwide by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project for the same period.
“Our findings suggest that deaths have largely gone undetected,” the LSHTM report stated. This study is the first to provide empirical estimates of all-cause mortality across Sudan and specifically in Khartoum State.
The researchers gathered data from public surveys, social media obituaries, and private network reports, revealing stark underreporting. The study noted that preventable diseases and starvation were the primary causes of death across most of Sudan, with violent deaths disproportionately concentrated in Kordofan and Darfur.
The conflict began in April 2023 between forces loyal to Sudan’s de facto leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Daglo. The war has devastated the country, and last month, UN experts accused both sides of employing starvation tactics against 25 million civilians.
Major aid organisations have also warned of an unprecedented hunger crisis, with families resorting to eating leaves and insects to survive.
Accurate casualty reporting has been hindered by limited access to raw data and the ongoing conflict. The LSHTM researchers emphasized the “invisible impact” of the war, including deaths from disease and malnutrition.
This grim revelation sheds light on the dire humanitarian situation in Sudan and underscores the urgent need for international attention and intervention.
