The United Kingdom faces a growing risk of more frequent and prolonged extreme heatwaves as climate change accelerates, according to a new study released by the Met Office on Wednesday. The country is preparing for its first heatwave of the year following warnings of soaring temperatures.
Met Office researchers emphasised that the UK is increasingly likely to experience temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit), a milestone previously rare in the region. The report highlights how heatwaves could not only become hotter but also last longer due to ongoing climate trends.
In the current climate, the study suggests, heatwaves in the UK could persist for a month or more, signalling a dramatic shift for a country historically known for its mild summers and frequent rainfall. The UK recorded its first temperature above 40 degrees in 2022.
“The chance of exceeding 40 degrees Celsius has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s,” said Gillian Kay, a senior scientist at the Met Office. She added there is a 50 percent probability of a 40-degree day occurring within the next 12 years as global temperatures continue to rise.
Scientists warn that as the planet warms due to fossil fuel emissions, the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events worldwide, including heatwaves, will continue to increase.
Earlier this week, the Met Office forecasted a likely heatwave across much of the UK, with temperatures expected to surpass 30 degrees Celsius. Nick Dunstone, co-author of the study, stressed the importance of preparing and planning for the impacts of rising temperatures.
This year, the UK experienced its warmest spring on record, alongside its driest spring in more than 50 years. The drought has already affected crop growth, with government officials warning of “exceptionally low” water reservoir levels. In May, Richard Thompson, deputy water director at the Environment Agency, cautioned that climate change means the UK will face more summer droughts in the coming decades.
