Ukrainian officials are increasingly worried that the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel could divert international attention from Russia’s ongoing invasion of their country and potentially strengthen Moscow’s war effort.
Israel’s recent large-scale bombardments on Iran prompted Tehran, a key Russian ally, to respond with a wave of missiles and drones. The confrontation has driven up oil prices, a critical source of revenue for the Kremlin’s military campaign.
“For Ukraine, the problem lies in rising oil prices, as sustained high prices allow Russia to generate more income,” a senior Ukrainian political insider told AFP.
Despite the economic concern, Kyiv views Israel’s strikes on Iran as advantageous, given Iran’s support for Moscow by supplying weapons used against Ukraine.
The Israeli assaults have eliminated several high-ranking Iranian military figures and could weaken Tehran’s ability to assist Russia militarily.
“Iran is Russia’s partner. The more losses they suffer, the better for us,” the Ukrainian source said. “In reality, Israel is benefiting the whole world.”
Nevertheless, Kyiv fears that Washington’s attention may shift further away from Ukraine. The administration of US President Donald Trump has signalled that its main security concerns lie in the Middle East and Asia, placing Europe lower on its agenda.
This reprioritisation could mean Russia faces less pushback from Washington as it continues its military campaign, allowing it to make fresh advances or conduct deadly air raids with little resistance.
Relations between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have also grown tense, further complicating Kyiv’s efforts to maintain strong US support.
Zelensky recently admitted that the Iran-Israel conflict poses serious risks for Ukraine. “No one disputes the unique bond between America and Israel,” he said, “but we hope this won’t lead to reduced assistance for Ukraine.”
He cited the Israel-Gaza war triggered by Hamas’s October 2023 attack as an example of how aid to Ukraine was previously slowed.
In an interview with American media earlier this month, Zelensky warned that missiles needed by Ukraine to intercept Russian drones might instead be diverted to the Middle East.
Following the Gaza conflict, Ukrainian officials have been increasingly focused on developing a domestic arms industry, recognising the risk of depending on foreign suppliers.
Russia has relentlessly targeted Ukraine with thousands of missiles and drones since launching its full-scale invasion in 2022, many of which were supplied or designed by Iran. Israel claims it has now hit Iranian production sites that may have otherwise continued producing weapons for Moscow.
“Hopefully, this will limit the supply or transfer of weapons to Russia,” Zelensky said.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence agreed that Iran’s ability to arm Russia could be hindered due to its involvement in the conflict with Israel. But it warned that Moscow stands to benefit overall from global distraction.
“Russia almost certainly sees some advantage in the Middle East conflict as it shifts international focus away from Ukraine,” the ministry posted on social media.
Moscow has also been manufacturing its weaponry and sourcing missiles and drones from North Korea.
Ukrainian military analyst and blogger Sergiy Sternenko cautioned against too much optimism over the Israeli strikes.
“Of course, Iran is our enemy, and we wish them the worst,” he wrote, “but a war in the Middle East will inevitably drive up oil prices.”
