In the past week, the unfolding events in Afghanistan have dominated the media space. The seemingly unimaginable happened.
The Taliban forces marched into the capital, forcing the scampering away of the president of Afghanistan, his officials, other members of the government, Western diplomats, and a few Afghans privileged to be airlifted or unfortunate to cling on the wheels of aeroplanes in desperation to leave the country for good.
Leaders in corridors of powers in Western capitals are eager to frame the failed mission in Afghanistan as a self-inflicted defeat by the Afghans, and their spin doctors are busy trying to convince the world that the West, especially, the United States of America has played its role and left the Afghans to pilot their affairs and shape their destiny, going forward.
As Nigerians were watching events unfold, the big question in the minds of most is how this will impact Nigeria.
The imagery of the Taliban bestriding like a colossus and devouring city after city, as it made its way to the capital is reminiscent of videos of the conquest and occupation of Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) littered all over the social media that Nigerians are used to, albeit on a smaller scale.
These groups pillage, rape, and kill many Nigerians at the fringes of our borders and across various ungoverned spaces, whilst the herders/farmers conflict is bloody and ubiquitous across the country.
Boko Haram and the Taliban have similar footprints and may even be acting from the same script. The big elephant in the room is, can Boko Haram, ISWAP or “militia-Herdsmen” become the Nigerian ‘Taliban’?
Can they march to Abuja and overthrow our legitimate and constituted government? What strategic lessons should Nigeria learn from the fall of Afghanistan to avoid similar scene? These questions call for an appropriate assessment of the situation, soul searching and the answers should influence how Nigeria tackles this seemingly intractable problem from now on.
To appraise whether Boko Haram terrorists can overrun the country like the Taliban were able to do in Afghanistan, we need to take a closer look at what drives and sustains Islamic extremism.
In as much as the West, through their powerful media, depict the Taliban as a group of ogres who impose medieval punishment on the citizenry and deprive women of fundamental freedom and rights, the group has a level of support within the local Afghan population.
This support enabled them to maintain a considerable level of resistance to the occupying American and allied forces in the country for 20 years, which led to the death of tens of thousands of Westerners and their Afghan collaborators. It also enabled them to overrun the country immediately after the Americans pulled out.
In the Nigerian context, the Boko Haram terrorists still draw some support from large swathes of the local population. These people give overt and covert support to the insurgents, which has enabled them to mount a sustained resistance to the Nigerian military.
To address this problem, we must tackle the root causes of terrorism, including poor governance, corruption, poverty, dearth of economic opportunities and lack of social and basic amenities.
The strategy of many terrorist groups in recruitment is always to target disgruntled people, those suffering from social and economic injustice, who feel left behind by the elite and the political class.
It is instructive to note that the hotbeds of Islamic extremism and terrorism in Nigeria are in areas with the country’s most extraordinary incidents of perverse poverty and educational backwardness. These are areas where people lack basic amenities, areas with high unemployment rates and high illiteracy levels.
The experience of the U.S. military in Afghanistan means that effectively tackling terrorism is not just simply about military warfare.
The Americans and their allies invaded Afghanistan after 9/11, routed the Taliban and installed a government seen by many Afghans as massively corrupt and inept.
This anomaly extended to the Afghan military, constituted mainly by people who were in for the financial security and opportunities presented by the American occupation. That was why the ‘highly trained’ force of 300,000 quickly fell to a ragtag army of 75,000 in just a matter of days.
Therefore, good governance and its twin, development, is a must to root out terror and to cut the supply lines of terrorists. Military might, in idealogical wars, no matter how powerful, would only lead to short term victories.
In an article published recently in the Financial Times, President Muhammadu Buhari alluded to this when he emphasised that U.S. military forces on the ground in Africa is not what is most needed. He said what Africa needs most is U.S. investment in infrastructure to help provide jobs and economic opportunities for the rapidly growing population.
Again, it is local political leaders and visionary leaders that build institutions and not multilateral agencies or foreign governments. If the local leaders are not involved in the building of the institutions, they will not own them ultimately.
Therefore, the shared vision and effective communication are critical in all nation-building efforts. The interests of locals are served better by a stable, independent, and prosperous state, and therefore, they must work together to protect it. Economic opportunities and a good quality of life for all citizens are what flow from this.
Fourthly, military crackdown alone against ideology (Taliban, Boko Haram, Biafra, etc.) is unsustainable. The solution must involve a battle of the hearts and minds of the people. Dialogue and negotiated compromise may be necessary rather than only a show of strength. Government should get the locals to understand the implications of supporting the terrorist movement on Nigeria existence.
Fifth, Nigeria must immediately address all its fault lines as a way of fostering unity and cohesion, which is needed to fight the common enemy of extremism. Unity is needed now, not fighting multiple wars. Restructuring and creating a sense of nationhood now is inevitable if Nigeria is to succeed. The issue of the movement of Fulani herdsmen, their incursions into other parts of the country and the allegations of land grabbing deserve focused attention by our leaders.
The 2023 general elections must not be allowed to divide or polarise Nigeria. It will leave Nigeria weak.
The last lesson is that a grand strategy to end insurgency in Nigeria must be developed and implemented rigorously by the government in conjunction with the private sector, regional and international collaborators.
There should be a rallying call for all Nigerians to understand that the country is at war, and resources and efforts must be channelled towards executing the war to an end. Instead of being reactive, the government should initiate a robust offensive against all insurgents, deploying the carrot and stick approach, as a way of defeating the terrorists once and for all times.
As seen in the Taliban case, firm resolve, local knowledge and support, and material, psychological, and ideological incentives will help all stakeholders work at the common goal of defeating the opponent, irrespective of their supposed strength. Nigeria should adopt this strategy.
In conclusion, we are far from seeing insurgency in Nigeria overrun the state. However, it is not impossible. We must proactively solve this problem before it gets out of hand and turns Nigeria into the next Afghanistan.
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