A Reuters poll revealed that Egypt’s economy is set to grow by 4% in the fiscal year ending June 2025, with expectations of further acceleration to 4.7% in 2025/26 and 5.0% in 2026/27.
The improvement is attributed to reforms under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme.
This marks a recovery from 2023/24, when GDP growth dropped to 2.4% from 3.8% the previous year, impacted by a currency crisis and disruptions caused by the conflict in neighbouring Gaza. The war affected key revenue streams like the Suez Canal and tourism.
In March 2024, Egypt signed an $8 billion financial reform deal with the IMF, following a $24 billion agreement with a UAE sovereign wealth fund to develop a real estate investment project on the Mediterranean coast.
Economists remain optimistic. James Swanston of Capital Economics forecasted 5% growth for the current fiscal year, citing benefits from a weaker Egyptian pound, which has boosted export-oriented industries through enhanced global competitiveness.
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook projects Egypt’s GDP growth at 3.6% this fiscal year and 4.1% in 2025/26.
The World Bank offers similar forecasts, predicting 3.5% growth in 2024 and 4.2% the following year. Egypt’s Ministry of Planning has set its target of 4% growth for 2024/25.
Last week, the IMF announced a staff-level agreement on the Fourth Review of the Extended Fund Facility for Egypt. This agreement could result in the disbursement of a $1.2 billion tranche in January, as confirmed by Egyptian Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk.
