As the South African elections begin, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) finds itself navigating through turbulent waters. The once unassailable political juggernaut now faces mounting challenges that have left its leaders and supporters jittery. The party, which has held power since the end of apartheid in 1994, is grappling with internal divisions, declining public support, and increasing pressure from opposition parties.
Internal Strife and Leadership Challenges
One of the most significant issues causing anxiety within the African National Congress is internal strife. The party is deeply divided, with factions vying for control and influence. These divisions have amplified in recent years, particularly around leadership contests and policy direction. The infighting has not only weakened the party’s cohesion but has also tarnished its public image. Corruption scandals and accusations of mismanagement have further eroded trust in the party’s leadership.
The leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa has been a focal point of contention. While Ramaphosa has made efforts to tackle corruption and revive the economy, his administration has been criticized for slow progress and perceived leniency towards corrupt officials within the party. This has led to a loss of confidence among some ANC members and even the broader public, who feel that the party has not done enough to address systemic issues.
Declining Public Support
The ANC’s support base has been steadily eroding over the past decade. The party’s dominance has been challenged by economic stagnation, high unemployment rates, and persistent social inequalities. Many South Africans, particularly the younger generation, are disillusioned with the ANC’s ability to deliver on its promises of a better future. This disillusionment has translated into declining voter turnout and increasing support for opposition parties.
The African National Congress performance in recent local elections has been a clear indicator of its waning support. In the 2021 municipal elections, the party experienced significant losses, failing to secure an outright majority in key metropolitan areas. This trend of declining support poses a serious threat to the ANC’s chances of maintaining its dominance in the upcoming national elections.
Rising Opposition and Coalition Politics
The rise of opposition parties has added to the ANC’s electoral jitters. The Democratic Alliance (DA) led by John Henry Steenhuisen and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by firebrand, Julius Malema, have been gaining ground, capitalising on the ANC’s weaknesses.
These parties have presented themselves as viable alternatives, appealing to voters dissatisfied with the ANC’s performance. The DA has positioned itself as a pro-business, anti-corruption party, while the EFF has garnered support with its radical economic policies and calls for land expropriation without compensation.
There is also the uMkhonto we Sizwe otherwise known as the MK Party led by South Africa’s and ANC’s former leader, Jacob Zuma. Opinion polls show it holds strong support in the Kwazulu Natal province among both black and coloured residents and will certainly take a chunk of ANC votes in the province.
The prospect of coalition politics has become increasingly likely. The ANC may need to form alliances to retain power, a scenario that introduces further uncertainties. Coalitions can be unstable and may require significant compromises, potentially hampering effective governance. This uncertainty adds to the ANC’s dilemma as it navigates uncharted territory.
Economic and Social Challenges
South Africa’s economic and social challenges also weigh heavily on the ANC’s prospects. The country is grappling with high unemployment, especially among the youth, and widespread poverty. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated these issues, leading to economic contraction and increased social unrest.
Whether the ANC has been able to evidentially address these pressing issues during its campaign remains to be seen but there will also be that emotional attachment many South Africans have for the party. Regardless, this will be the most uncertain election the party is going into in its over three decades in power. If it manages to hold on to power, there will be no room for further complacency.
The outcome of the elections will not only shape the future of the African National Congress but also the trajectory of South Africa’s democracy.