The future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) remains uncertain, with doubts growing since Donald Trump’s return to the White House. This key trade agreement provides duty-free access to the United States for certain African products, but its renewal, due in September, is now in question, leaving American importers considering alternative sources.
The uncertainty surrounding AGOA has been exacerbated by the turbulence caused by Trump’s previous tariff policies, raising further concerns about the future of the deal.
The AGOA has been a cornerstone of trade relations between the United States and African nations. Introduced in 2000 under Democratic President Bill Clinton, it allows duty-free access for African countries that meet certain conditions, such as political pluralism, human rights, and anti-corruption efforts.
To date, around 30 of Africa’s 50 countries benefit from the agreement, which covers a wide array of products, including textiles and automobiles.
In 2023, goods worth $9.26 billion were exported under AGOA, with $4.25 billion coming from the oil and energy sectors, according to the United States International Trade Commission (USITC).
Although the AGOA has not been officially cancelled, it is up for review in September, and there is currently “no clarity” about its future, according to Alex Vines, director of the Africa programme at Chatham House.
Before Trump’s election, some US lawmakers had proposed extending the accord until 2041. However, given Trump’s scepticism toward multilateral agreements, experts have warned that AGOA’s continuation could be at risk.
Trump has several options if he chooses to end or modify AGOA. He could simply allow the agreement to lapse in September or exclude certain countries, such as South Africa, which has been a target of his criticism.
Additionally, Trump could exclude certain industrial sectors, such as the automotive industry, which he has previously described as a “bellwether for the American economy.”
South Africa is the largest non-oil exporter under AGOA, earning $3.6 billion in 2023. The agreement allows South African cars to enter the US market duty-free, making it the country’s second-largest export after precious metals.
Billy Tom, president of the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa), said that 86,000 jobs are directly tied to the accord within car manufacturing, with 125,000 more dependent on sub-contractors.
However, there is growing pessimism about the renewal of AGOA. “I don’t think South Africa has much of a chance for renewal,” said Neil Diamond, president of the South African Chamber of Commerce in the United States.
The tension has been exacerbated by Trump’s criticism of South Africa’s expropriation law and Pretoria’s stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly its case at the International Court of Justice regarding Israel’s actions in Gaza.
Kenya lags behind South Africa in terms of non-oil exports, with $509 million in 2023, mainly from textiles. Madagascar and Lesotho follow, exporting $339 million and $167 million respectively.
Nigeria remains AGOA’s largest oil and energy exporter, with $3.7 billion worth of exports in 2023. Meanwhile, countries like Ghana export primarily agricultural products under the agreement.
