Rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, fuelled by increased arms shipments, are jeopardising the stability of the Horn of Africa and potentially giving the insurgent group Al-Shabaab a chance to exploit the situation, according to analysts.
The region has been on high alert since January when Ethiopia unexpectedly announced its plan to lease a stretch of Somaliland’s coastline to construct a naval base and commercial port. Somaliland, a self-declared autonomous region of Somalia since 1991, is not recognised by Somalia, which has rejected Ethiopia’s move.
This action has pushed Somalia to strengthen ties with Egypt, Ethiopia’s key regional adversary. Relations between Egypt and Ethiopia have been strained, particularly due to the massive Grand Renaissance Dam project on the Nile, which Egypt views as a threat to its water security.
On 14 August, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud hailed a “historic” military agreement with Egypt, and in the weeks that followed, Somalia received two shipments of arms, the latest arriving just last weekend.
Ethiopia’s foreign ministry expressed alarm on Monday, warning that these arms could end up in the hands of Al-Shabaab militants.
Somalia has also threatened to expel Ethiopian troops, who have been part of an African Union mission combating Al-Shabaab since 2007. As this mission is set for restructuring later this year, Egypt has offered to replace Ethiopian forces for the first time.
Further complicating the situation, Somalia may demand the withdrawal of an estimated 10,000 Ethiopian troops stationed along their shared border to guard against Islamist incursions. Samira Gaid, a security expert based in Mogadishu, described Somalia’s threat as a strategic ploy to dissuade Ethiopia from recognising Somaliland’s independence.
However, the possible withdrawal of Ethiopian forces has already sparked concerns in southwestern Somalia, a region heavily impacted by Al-Shabaab’s insurgency. “If Ethiopia and Somalia cease cooperating on security, it will create vulnerabilities that Al-Shabaab can exploit,” Mahmood warned.
Efforts by foreign powers to ease tensions have so far achieved little. Turkey mediated two rounds of discussions between the two countries in July and August, but a third meeting scheduled for last week in Ankara failed to materialise.
Meanwhile, last weekend, Somalia accused Ethiopia of arming Puntland, another self-declared autonomous region that broke away in 1998. Somalia’s foreign ministry condemned this as a serious violation of its sovereignty and a threat to both national and regional security.