Like many of its counterparts across the world, African airlines are fully getting back in the air after several months of being grounded as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. For many players in Africa’s aviation sector, this brings with it a lot of promise: the International Air Transport Association has projected the total number of travellers to reach 4 billion in 2024- exceeding pre-COVID levels to grow by 103%. It added that passenger travel will grow across Africa by 74% of the years before the pandemic before surpassing it by 2025. However, these projections are hinged on specific factors which are currently not in place in many African countries. The slow progress in vaccine role out in these countries is also bound to affect passenger travel, along with the impact of the pandemic on emerging economies. Nevertheless, many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have opened their borders to flights from other regions, albeit with public health guidelines in place. The midweek edition of Business Edge features the road to recovery of Africa’s aviation sector. She’s joined by Olumide Ohunayo, an aviation consultant and Assistant Secretary of Aviation Roundtable based in Lagos, Nigeria.
The aviation industry indeed stood a chance at the beginning of the year of returning to pre-COVID levels, only to be thwarted somewhat by the Russia-Ukraine crisis that has derailed the supply of aviation fuel and its cost. This in turn as led to a hike in airfares. In many places including Nigeria, the price of airline tickets have increased by a hundred per cent. Unsurprisingly, that has affected the number of passengers flying at all. “We’re expecting an increase in the fares on international routes [maybe] not as immediately as the domestic route, but we’re expecting a gradual increase,” he says. “Once fares increase, the first people to disappear are tourists and non-essential travel.”
The direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the expected recovery of Africa’s aviation sector is likely to be seen in the reduction of business momentum, not only in the location where this conflict is taking place but also in African countries and businesses. The scarcity or availability of aviation fuel is key to travel to and within Africa. “We complained at the beginning of the year [when it was ] N420 per litre. Right now, aviation fuel is over 600 naira per litre [in Nigeria].
Watch the episode in full.