S&P Global has upgraded Côte d’Ivoire’s economy to BB due to the country’s consistent reforms aimed at stabilising the economy. This upgrade comes at a time when Côte d’Ivoire is dedicated to its major export—cocoa, which has maintained high prices due to high demand.
The increased oil and gas output, which will support exports, and the rapid narrowing of the country’s elevated external deficit also contribute to Côte d’Ivoire’s economic upgrade. The report forecasts that by 2025, the budget deficit should reach 3% of GDP, while the rising exports of the country’s mining industry are expected to significantly reduce the external deficit.
S&P Global Inc (SPGI) provides financial intelligence solutions by offering credit ratings, benchmarks, and data that categorise markets as either healthy or investment grade using designations such as AAA, to BBB-, and the speculative markets, which range from grades BB+, to D.
According to a recent assessment, Côte d’Ivoire has been upgraded from its previous rating of BB-, indicating a higher credit risk, to BB, indicating less vulnerability in the near term.
While providing reasons for the upgrade, the global credit rating company mentioned the efforts by the region’s national bank, the Central Bank of West African States, from 2019 to 2024 to strengthen the economies and capital market access of member states during periods of repeated external shocks.
“Despite these shocks, Cote d’Ivoire has posted average GDP growth of over 5.6% from 2019-2024, with general government deficits moderating since the 2022 peak of 6.8% of GDP, reflecting progress on revenue mobilisation and expenditure constraints under IMF programs”.
“The stable outlook balances risks from still-elevated external financing needs, high external leverage, and political uncertainty with the economy’s solid growth prospects, strong donor support, and an expected decline in budgetary and external imbalances.” the report stated.
Côte d’Ivoire is presently the leading producer of cocoa globally. In light of the high prices and growing demand for the product, the country contibuted to one-third of the global cocoa prodcution, producing 2.2 million tons of cocoa as of 2022.
Bloomberg has reported that the cocoa harvest in Côte d’Ivoire for 2024-2025 is projected to exceed previous estimates by 10%.
Earlier this year, Côte d’Ivoire surpassed South Africa as the top-rated nation in Sub-Saharan Africa with outstanding foreign debt.
Business Insider Africa reports that in August of this year, S&P ratings had assigned Côte d’Ivoire a BB- rating, similar to South Africa. However, Côte d’Ivoire’s outlook was upgraded to positive due to an improving debt profile, while South Africa’s outlook remained stable.