Contrary to popular belief, politics itself is not inherently corrupt; instead, it is the unsavoury behaviour of the participants that gives it a bad reputation. When placed under the lens of political competition, previously ambiguous figures become more evident and more pronounced, revealing the true nature of those involved, particularly in the Nigerian context.
While several sub-nationals may claim to have their political peculiarities, it is in Edo State that this paradigm of uniqueness reaches its acme, hence the bated breath of anticipation as the “Heartbeat of the Nation” encounters its next round of electoral slugfest of who will win the September 21 polls to succeed Godwin Obaseki.
Understanding the dynamics of Edo state is crucial for the upcoming off-cycle political competition. Knowledge of the local dynamics, culture, and challenges is essential to ascertain who will likely occupy Dennis Osadebey House and how his government will be sharpened.
Unlike Lagos, where a handful of people determine who becomes governor or in Kaduna, where it is challenging for a person of Southern Kaduna origin to occupy the seat, there appears to be an unwritten agreement on the transition of power between the senatorial districts of Edo state, which means that power will more than likely shift from Edo South where the outgoing governor is from.
Due to this trend, the two major political parties (the APC and PDP) picked their candidates from the Edo Central Senatorial District. The former governor, Adams Oshiomole is from the Edo North senatorial zone.
Edo South Remains the Beautiful Bride
Despite being aware of this political norm, the Labour Party, presuming it can consolidate on the inroads it made in the Edo South zone during the 2023 elections, boldly picked a candidate from the zone, hoping it would upset tradition to launch what would be a seismic win.
Equally important is that the zone’s historical voting pattern signals it as not having any fidelity to any party, instead leaning more towards the antecedents and competency of candidates. Edo South has supported a different political party during the same elections in past years, demonstrating its capacity to discern and comprehend the relevant issues. Based on the prevailing narratives, the region has also backed different parties at different times. Votes have consistently been allocated to candidates based on their ability to appeal to the public during various polls.
Whatever the case, the battle is set to be decided in Edo South, especially as the two major candidates have strategically picked their running mates from the senatorial zone. It promises to be one of the most thrilling polls in recent Nigerian history.
Proxy Contest Looming
The September 21 election is also a proxy contest among political heavyweights whose names do not appear on the ballot. Despite the individual strengths of the three major candidates, they are relatively new to politics, even though the APC candidate, Monday Okpebholo, has spent some time in Parliament.
For the frontline candidates, a loss would mean a return to their previous roles, with the opportunity to learn from their first foray into politics and try again. However, for external parties, there are scores to settle, unfinished business to address, and the need to maintain political relevance, driving a sense of desperation and intense competition in the election’s outcome.
The dynamics of the Edo gubernatorial contest are set to change this time, primarily due to the “Obi factor.” Edo State experienced a significant impact from the Obi wave in the 2023 presidential poll, with Obi securing an impressive 56.97% of the votes and denying more experienced competitors the required 25% threshold. The upcoming election holds significance for the 2023 presidential candidates and their parties as they seek to prove their strength in Edo State.
For the PDP and Obaseki, retaining Edo State represents an opportunity to redeem themselves after their setback in the 2023 elections in the South-South and South East, former strongholds of the party. On the other hand, losing the state would further diminish the party that once controlled 28 states and had a continuous 60-year rule over the country.
An APC victory in Edo will allow the party to reclaim a state it governed for 12 years until 2020, when the outgoing governor, Mr Godwin Obaseki, was denied a re-election ticket by his estranged godfather, Senator Adams Oshiomhole. This led to his defection to the PDP, which won the state.
Edo State also holds personal significance for President Tinubu as it was where he expanded his political influence beyond the South West and laid the groundwork for his eventual presidential bid. In 2016, Tinubu openly sided against Obaseki, leading to the Obaseki campaign adopting the slogan “Edo no be Lagos.” The campaign went on to win the polls with the support of disgruntled APC members.
Oshiomole vs Obaseki
Without a doubt, the biggest proxy contest is between Obaseki and Oshiomhole. Both seek to assert their political dominance in the state following their previous electoral face-offs. Oshiomhole sees this as his final opportunity to put Obaseki in his place, while Obaseki aims to demonstrate his growth as a formidable political force in the state.
While there have been power recalibrations over the last four years, Oshiomhole still controls the state’s APC structure and has attracted defectors from the PDP who have clashed with Obaseki. Due to his closeness to the president, he can also wield federal might.
However, despite being statutorily barred, Obaseki still has the power of incumbency at the state level and is from Edo South, which has approximately half of the state’s voting population.
Time For Edo Central?
Beyond the godfathers and other stakeholders, the outcome of the Edo election will be heavily influenced by regional dynamics within the state. This aspect adds another layer to the indirect confrontation. Based on principles of fairness and justice, the state’s governorship appears to have been designated for Edo Central. This zone has been historically excluded from holding the esteemed position in the Fourth Republic.
While individuals from Edo South have governed the state for 16 years and Edo North for eight years, Edo Central has had minimal representation in the highest elective position, with the last occurrence being brief and subsequently annulled.
There appears to be a consensus among the political elite to address the historical injustice faced by the zone in this election cycle. Interestingly, the most recent governance from Edo Central was between 1979 and 1983, when Professor Ambrose Alli served as the elected governor of Bendel State.
Despite the significant roles played by prominent Esans in national politics and life, their influence in Edo politics has been limited due to their senatorial zone being the smallest of the three. Furthermore, Edo Central accounted for only 18% of the total votes in the 2020 elections, while Edo South and Edo North contributed 47% and 35%, respectively.
It appears that Edo is now seeking to address the historical marginalisation of the Esan people, with two of the top three candidates, Okpebholo and Ighodalo, coming from the zone. This consensus places Akpata at a disadvantage on paper. A victory for Akpata would mean another four to eight years for Edo South, which, in addition to having governed for 16 of the past 25 years, is also the zone of the outgoing governor.
While it appears that one of the two candidates from Edo Central has the upper hand in the upcoming election, there is also a subtle competition between Okpebholo and Ighodalo regarding who is more Esan and who is more accomplished/articulate.
However, these factors are unlikely to be the main determinants of the election outcome. For one of the two Esan candidates to win on Saturday, they must perform well in their home zone, secure the support of one of the other more populated zones, and put up a good competition in the other zone. This again highlights the electoral influence that those not directly involved in the election, especially Oshiomhole and Obaseki, can have on Saturday.
While PDP’s Asue Ighodalo promises a “Pathway to Prosperity For All,” LP’s Olumide Akpata stresses he has a “Pact With Edo People,” and APC’s Monday Okpebholo brings “Renewed Hope,” the credibility and acceptability of the elections largely rests on the electoral umpire, INEC.
Either it rises to its responsibility and restores people’s confidence in its competency to organise fair polls, or it triggers a crisis that might snowball nationwide, especially in the current economic circumstance; after all, “Edo no de gree.”