Ethiopia has expressed concern over the upcoming African Union-led mission for Somalia, known as AUSSOM, which is set to replace the existing AU peacekeeping force in January 2024. The new mission is intended to combat the Al-Shabaab group, but Ethiopia warns that it could worsen tensions in East Africa. This concern comes amid heightened regional instability following Egypt’s recent delivery of military aid to Somalia.
Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the situation is “fraught with dangers” and accused Somalia of colluding with unspecified actors aiming to destabilize the Horn of Africa. The Ethiopian government emphasized that it cannot remain passive while others take steps that could lead to regional instability.
The relationship between Ethiopia and Egypt has long been strained, particularly due to disputes over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, which Egypt views as a threat to its water security. Additionally, relations between Ethiopia and Somalia deteriorated after Ethiopia signed a controversial maritime deal with the breakaway Somali region of Somaliland.
Egypt and Somalia have recently strengthened their ties, including signing a military cooperation agreement. Egypt is also expected to be the first country to deploy forces to support Somali security after the withdrawal of the current AU force, ATMIS, by the end of 2024. This evolving situation has prompted Ethiopia to closely monitor developments, as it fears further destabilisation in the region.