Far-right leader Marine Le Pen faces a crucial court ruling on Monday over an alleged fake jobs scandal in the European Parliament. The verdict could derail her bid for the French presidency in 2027, a race she is currently favoured to reach.
Le Pen, a three-time presidential candidate, denies wrongdoing, but prosecutors have demanded a five-year ban from public office, five years in prison—three suspended and two possibly under electronic surveillance—and a €300,000 ($324,000) fine. If the court upholds the ban, it would take effect immediately, potentially blocking her candidacy even if she appeals.
Le Pen has decried the case as a politically motivated attack, writing in La Tribune Dimanche that the judges hold the “right of life or death over our movement.” However, she remains confident that she will not be barred from running.
Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) emerged as the largest party in France’s 2024 legislative elections, boosting her chances of winning in 2027 amid public frustration over immigration and the cost of living. Polls suggest she would easily make it to a run-off vote, potentially joining the ranks of other far-right leaders like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Hungary’s Viktor Orban.
If convicted, her protégé and RN leader Jordan Bardella, 29, could step in. However, doubts remain over his experience and ability to carry a presidential campaign.
The trial involves 24 defendants, including nine ex-MEPs and 12 parliamentary assistants. Prosecutors accuse the RN of misusing MEPs’ €21,000 monthly allowances to fund party operations rather than legitimate parliamentary work. The RN itself faces a potential €4.3 million ($4.6 million) fine.
Le Pen claims the case is an attempt at “political death” by barring her from the race, while prosecutors insist they are not targeting the RN unfairly.
An Ifop poll suggests Le Pen could win 34-37% in the first round of the 2027 election, though her second-round chances would hinge on whether her rivals unite against her. With President Emmanuel Macron unable to seek re-election, the race remains wide open, with figures like Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin hinting at a potential candidacy.
