Israeli Minister Benny Gantz is anticipated to announce his party’s exit from the emergency government formed after the October 7 attack on Israel in a speech on Saturday, according to political sources close to him.
Gantz’s withdrawal will not collapse Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, which maintains a 64-member majority in the Knesset. However, it is likely to destabilise the government and intensify the political crisis in Israel amid the ongoing bombardment of Gaza, negotiations for hostages, and a ceasefire.
Seen as a moderate by the Biden administration and many Western and Arab governments, Gantz’s departure is expected to heighten U.S. and international pressure on Netanyahu.
Gantz joined the emergency government four days after the October 7 attack, when Netanyahu and his government were overwhelmed by the events. His inclusion led to the formation of a war cabinet, sidelining the radical right members of the coalition and giving Gantz and fellow party member Gadi Eizenkot, both former Israel Defence Chiefs of Staff, significant influence over decision-making.
Gantz’s decision to join the emergency government was widely popular in Israel, viewed as a demonstration of unity and patriotism during an unprecedented crisis. Consequently, his popularity surged, with polls showing his party could secure up to 40 seats and nearly 50% of Israelis supporting him as the next prime minister.
However, as the war continued, Netanyahu began to recover politically, violating agreements with Benny Gantz and taking steps to marginalise him. Faced with attacks from Netanyahu’s supporters and growing criticism from his own voters, Gantz’s polling numbers began to decline. Recent polls indicate his party is securing only 25 seats, with Netanyahu surpassing him in favourability ratings.
On May 18, Benny Gantz issued an ultimatum to Netanyahu, stating his party would leave the government if a strategy for the war in Gaza was not approved by June 8. In his speech, Gantz criticised an extremist minority for taking over decision-making and “leading Israel into a wall,” referring to Netanyahu’s political allies and ultranationalist ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Gantz’s likely exit coincides with the Biden administration’s push for a hostage and ceasefire deal in Gaza, a key point in Gantz’s ultimatum to Netanyahu. Earlier this week, Gantz consulted senior Biden administration officials about his imminent decision. They emphasised it was his decision to make and assured they would not intervene in Israeli domestic politics, though they noted the sensitivity of the ongoing hostage negotiations.
Should Benny Gantz withdraw, Netanyahu’s government will likely be further dominated by Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who are expected to pressure the prime minister for a more hardline approach in Gaza, actions against the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, and escalated attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Gantz’s exit would probably lead Netanyahu to dissolve the war cabinet, relying primarily on Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and confidant Minister Ron Dermer for decision-making.