Ivory Coast has raised its projected cashew output for 2025 to 1.3 million metric tonnes, up from the previously forecast 1.15 million tonnes, despite facing serious export challenges due to the threat of U.S. tariffs and a weakening U.S. dollar, according to the head of the country’s cashew sector regulator.
Mamadou Berte, of the Cotton and Cashew Council (CCA), said the production increase is partly due to a clampdown on smuggling of raw cashews into neighbouring Ghana and Burkina Faso. However, he warned that export prospects are deteriorating rapidly, particularly as Vietnamese buyers—who normally account for around 80% of the country’s cashew purchases—have drastically reduced their imports.
Vietnamese firms have so far bought just 200,000 tonnes of raw Ivorian cashews this year, a sharp decline from 700,000 to 800,000 tonnes in 2024. Much of Vietnam’s cashew imports are processed and then re-exported to the United States, making them highly vulnerable to new American trade measures.
Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration announced sweeping tariffs affecting numerous countries, including Ivory Coast, which was hit with a proposed 21% levy—one of the highest in West Africa. Though the tariffs have been paused for 90 days to allow for negotiations, a 10% blanket tariff remains in effect. Vietnam, a key intermediary in the supply chain, could face a 46% tariff if talks fail before the moratorium ends in July.
“We are in total loss if we continue,” said a Vietnamese cashew company manager.
The depreciation of the U.S. dollar has further complicated trade, lowering returns for local producers whose contracts were agreed at higher exchange rates. Prices have fallen sharply—from 425 CFA francs ($0.73) per kilogram earlier in the year to as low as 200 CFA francs ($0.35), Berte noted.
Multiple buyers and exporters from Vietnam and India confirmed the price drop and said that roughly 200,000 tonnes of Ivorian cashew nuts remain unsold. They warned that farmers may have to store the excess crop or sell it locally to avoid wastage.
Berte added that local buyers have acquired over 650,000 tonnes of raw cashews this year, more than double the 300,000 tonnes purchased during the same period last year. He also said the CCA is exploring support measures to help secure purchases of the remaining unsold stock.
