Republican Donald Trump took a commanding lead in the US presidential election on Wednesday, leaving Democrat Kamala Harris’s supporters hoping for a last-minute reversal.
Trump was on track to secure the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency, while Harris was optimistic that some late-counting states might change the outcome.
Here are some takeaways as votes are tabulated:
TOUGH SLEDDING
- Voter Discontent: 75% of voters felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, with many expressing dissatisfaction with the current leadership.
- Trump Support: Among those unhappy with the country’s direction, 61% supported Trump, with 71% of “angry” voters backing him.
- Economic Focus: Voters prioritizing the economy overwhelmingly favoured Trump (79%-20%).
- Abortion Divide: Voters in favour of legal abortion were split, with Harris leading Trump 51%-47%, though Trump’s stance on states’ rights and no federal ban helped him close the gap.
- Democracy Concerns: Voters who felt democracy was “threatened” were split between Trump and Harris, with Democrats accusing Trump of authoritarianism while he claimed he was being unfairly targeted by the Biden administration.
TREND LINES
- Early Wins: Trump secured early victories in key states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
- Growing Lead: As the night went on, Trump’s electoral lead expanded.
- Support from Voters of Colour: Trump received stronger support from male voters of colour and younger voters.
- Suburban Women: Trump maintained strong backing among white suburban women, leading 51%-47%.
- Electoral Strength: Trump’s performance in these areas helped solidify his position in the race.
VOTERS OF COLOR
- Targeting Minority Voters: Trump’s campaign focused on attracting Black and Latino voters, with some early success.
- Black Voter Gains in North Carolina: Trump’s share of the Black vote in North Carolina increased to 12%, up from 5% in 2020.
- Black Male Support: In North Carolina, Trump gained 20% of the Black male vote.
- Latino Male Surge: Trump saw an 18-point increase in support from Latino male voters compared to 2020.
- Latino Voter Gains in Key States: In Nevada, Trump gained 11 percentage points among Latino voters, and 4 points in Arizona.
A GENDER GAP?
- Harris’ Focus on Women’s Issues: Harris aimed to leverage a gender gap, emphasizing issues like abortion to appeal to women voters.
- Trump’s Support Among White Women: Trump maintained strong support among white women, similar to his 2020 performance.
- Black Women’s Support for Harris: Harris received overwhelming support from Black women voters.
- Trump’s Decline Among White Women in North Carolina: Trump saw a 7-point drop in support among white women in North Carolina compared to 2020.
- Harris’ Lower Support from Women: Harris attracted 54% of women voters, a decrease from Biden’s 57% in 2020.
AN AGE GAP
- Trump Edges Out Harris Among Younger Men: Trump narrowly surpassed Harris among men aged 18-44 and held a strong lead among men aged 45 and older.
- Increased Support Among Younger Voters: Trump’s support among voters under 45 grew in key battleground states.
- Trump Wins More New Voters: Trump gained 9 percentage points more than Harris among new voters.
- Decline Among Older Voters: Trump’s support among older voters (65+) declined compared to 2020.
- Drop in Senior Support in Key States: In Wisconsin, Trump’s support among seniors fell 11 points, and in Michigan, it dropped 6 points, leaving him tied with Harris for the 65+ vote, compared to his win over Biden in 2020.