Pretty ballads hide bastard truths, Rodion Belousov, Sonya Belousova and Giona Ostelli sang in The Witcher, a Netflix original series. There will be some quotes from the series in this article as they tell a story of where Nigeria is exactly one year to the 2023 General elections.
A little over seven years ago, Nigerians were compelled beyond every existential doubt to go all out and vote for Muhammadu Buhari, a man who would later become a civilian President, after his stint as head of state in the military years. Buhari represented a reinvigoration of hope. He brought Nigerians close to what they’d imagine in their most alluring fantasies.
Academics, street hawkers, school teachers, businessmen, virtually every Nigerian held Buhari’s messianic campaign close to heart. It was the direction the nation needed, or at least, so Nigerians thought. Logic at that point wasn’t the forte of the majority of Nigerians, neither was reality. It was our precious fantasy, or how best would one explain the promise of equating a dollar to a naira?
When the 2015 election was declared to hold in February, the ever witty Nigerian masses said it’s “Febuhari”. When Nigeria’s electoral umpire, INEC postponed the election to March, the song and slogan changed to announce the unyielding and undying spirit and dogged desire for a new Nigeria. This time, it was “March4Buhari”. By April, Nigeria had gone past the ideas of March. Too late to even hear the warning at all. The month of May arrived and Buhari swore-in as Nigeria’s President.
To say Buhari has failed totally will be unfair. By 2019, many Nigerians had begun to lose faith in his leadership qualities but the structure and machinery that took him to Aso Rock were still in place, hence, his re-election.
However, he failed to spark courage and hope as he did four years earlier and had lost touch with the desires of Nigerians in a government. What locals lacked was a viable and trustworthy opposition who they could stick out their necks for. In the absence of one, Buhari returned.
The ruling All Progressives Congress had promised Nigerians eldorado. What citizens have since realised, lived in and coped with is the complete opposite of what they once imagined with a radiant smile and reassuring confidence.
Insecurity has stayed a headache, and more groups have risen to cause terror in local communities, the economy has worsened and citizen confidence is at an abysmal low. To charge Nigerians to vote now is a difficult task. In the 2019 election, just 35% of registered voters cast their ballots. In the last governorship election in Anambra, just above 10% of voters came out to exercise their franchise. There is a widespread frustration that makes elections an option that doesn’t give citizens the confidence they really seek.
Buhari has had to battle with many travails, typical of the king that wears the heavy Nigerian crown. How he has dealt with them has led to widespread criticisms across cultures, societal classes and structures. However, to say he has failed totally will not be justifiable.
He has completed projects started by the previous administration and has embarked upon some. All these, are however not enough to raise the dashed hopes of Nigerian on the streets, and that’s the closest measure of governance. The rising debt profile also does not ask for a warm hug from the populace. With more than 40% of the population still living in poverty and school children still carrying bowls to beg for food when they should be in classrooms, the metrics of performance are still pointing downwards for the current administration.
It’s precisely one year to the minute Nigeria will hold its 7th General elections and more than ever, the conversation has been around who the ideal Presidential candidate is, vis a vis the region he or she should come from, his or her age classification, leadership credentials or if untested, potentials. There are tens of options and the floor has seen many dancers dare to show their skills.
Nigerian politicians have left an indelible mark of mistrust and distrust on the citizens that it has become a celestial adventure to choose who the right leader is. There are so many faces and names to choose from, but the scars of the past have barely been scratched.
“Wizards are all the same. You talk nonsense while making wise and meaningful faces. – Eist Tuirseach
The quote above represents Nigerian politicians when it’s time for elections. Nigerians have seen and heard so much that they don’t trust the words of politicians again. The words, blown out of those loudspeakers, accompanied by the blocks laid for stomach infrastructure, have become so mere that it takes a public invigoration by civil society organisations and stoic Nigerians to give others a sense of direction. Even with those, there’s still an air of doubt surrounding the Nigerian voter, one year to the elections.
For the Presidential election, there are a myriad of aspirants – expected and unexpected and virtually all of them are Southerners. There’s the mental consensus amongst the political class and Nigerian electorates that the south is only liable to present Nigeria’s next President. Ever-present names like Atiku Abubakar still lurk around while former Senate President, Bukola Saraki won’t mind testing the waters again. Within Nigeria’s opposition, there’s still a contention about zoning of the Presidency and where it should be headed.
Tactical mastery is a big gift in politics and the PDP believes it has the chance for a fight without Buhari on the ballot.
In Nigeria’s ruling party, there is a truckload of issues waiting to be trashed. Political observers are whetting their appetites for the events that will happen on the 26th of February when the party holds its National Convention. That promises to be a revelation of unseen realities.
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the party’s National Leader has been seen making inroads across the country. To many, he has the financial muscle and experience to charge for the Presidency but courts strong reservations amongst the youths, many of whom are advised, charged and begged to register to vote and get their voter cards. Tinubu however has enough national instruments to mount a good run, especially in a country where elections are popularity contests to woo the poor.
Many aspirants in the APC hail from the South-East, as the region which holds a major tribe in the country, is yet to produce a President or Vice President. The Ndigbo, as believed by most Nigerians deserve to produce a Nigerian President, but the workings of politics have not placed the region or its people in the right stead.
To see many aspirants from the region dare the odds is bold. Some political analysts say it’s a disadvantage to have many aspirants because it is better for them to charge on a united front. The beauty of democracy is in the generality of options and choices and to see many throw their hats in the ring at the preliminary phase may work in the long run, but to also deny the lack of presence of the Ndigbo in national politics prior to this moment will not be sound judgement.
Names like former President Goodluck Jonathan, Yemi Osinbajo, Nigeria’s current Vice President and Godwin Emefiele, the nation’s Central Bank Governor have also made the rounds. They have left their desires to be supremely decided by divine authorities. The veracity of their ambitions will be known in the coming days but with practically less than one year to the election, it may be time to soil their butts on the hot seat, if their interests ring true.
Nigeria has not just an election to hold, but an electoral law to reshape. President Buhari still holds control over the direction to be taken as the country awaits his assent of the electoral law amendment bill. What becomes of that document may make or mar the present and future of elections in Nigeria. Nigerians believe Buhari has a chance to bow out on a high if he signs the bill into law, and Nigerians are known to forget the past easily, particularly in politics.
The eventuality of the Nigerian truth is striking. A third force may be lurking but they neither threaten the stranglehold of the lofted political class nor hold enough belief in the minds of the electorates. When citizens are looking outside the regulars, the better options on the bench seem controlled by the main players.
Evil is evil. Lesser, greater, middling, it’s all the same. Proportions are negotiated, boundaries blurred. I’m not a pious hermit, I haven’t done only good in my life. But if I’m to choose between one evil and another, then I prefer not to choose at all.”
Andrzej Sapkowsk
The quote above won’t build a better country in a democracy, yet every option littering the Nigerian voter’s inked finger doesn’t seem pleasing enough for hope – a term now known as a big risk, best learnt more than seven years ago.
Pretty ballads do hide bastard truths. 365 days to go and there are still many questions to ask, many undesirable facts to accept. Hate them or not, the truth in the faces of Nigerians.