The current security situation across Nigeria is extremely complex and multifaceted, marked by a range of challenges that vary by region.
The SB Morgen Intelligence in its West Africa Security and Political Economy Report attempts to launch a critical analysis of the root causes of these security breaches and what the government has done and has to do to abate the rate of violent crimes across the country.
North-East
In the Northeastern part of the country, insurgency led by terrorist groups such as Boko Haram and its offshoot ISWAP (Islamic State’s West Africa Province) continues to pose significant threats, leading to displacement and loss of life as well as a humanitarian crisis. Despite military efforts, these groups remain resilient, carrying out attacks on both civilian and military targets.
However, on May 15, 2024, individuals associated with Boko Haram and the Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP) surrendered to troops of 403 Amphibious Brigade of MNJTF Sector 3, in Borno State.
ISWAP has been weakened with the defection of Mikhail Usman, AKA Kaila. Kaila, from the Buduma ethnic group, defected to JAS in early 2023 with some commanders and fighters. Among their grievances was the perceived marginalisation of the Buduma from ISWAP leadership positions. The defection has also opened more opportunities for which the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) can exploit, and it seems they have been doing this to some extent.
North-West
In the North-West and Central regions, banditry and kidnapping for ransom have surged, affecting communities and travel safety. Kidnapping for ransom has become particularly prevalent, with schools, highways, and rural communities being frequent targets.
The recent Kano Mosque fire is the latest in a string of violent crimes that have beset the Northwest but preliminary investigations reveal the arsonist who acted on his own was unhappy about a share of his inheritance and decided to take matters into his hands. It is not clear if his targets were present in the mosque but a better response time by relevant authorities could have saved several lives.
North-Central/Middle-Belt
The Middle-belt states are plagued by conflicts between herders and farmers over land and resources, contributing to instability. These conflicts have deepened ethnic and religious divides, resulting in significant loss of life and property.
The nation’s capital in particular has seen a surge in kidnapping for ransom as well as jail breaks.
Niger Delta
In the Niger Delta, issues related to militancy and oil theft continue to persist. While Nigerian soldiers have vacated the Okuama community after the killing of several of its men, gunmen attacked the Okumu plantation in Edo State, killing one and injuring several others. Seven vehicles were burned, and several houses were destroyed. The gunmen left an unsigned handwritten letter on the deceased’s chest, demanding 25% shares in Okomu Oil and a position on the company’s board.
South-West
The siege kidnappers laid on the Lagos-Ibadan expressway, especially around the Sagamu interchange seems to have ameliorated. However, the Police need to remain vigilant to sustain the current security situation and collaborate more with local security outfits like Amotekun for the desired operational sustainability.
South-East
The activities of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) persist in the South-East and it appears Enugu State is their preferred hunting ground with militants still violently engaging police officers. Unlike in Anambra, Ebonyi and Imo, where spirited attacks are mounted against police stations, the militants in Enugu have been a little less sophisticated, choosing random, lone gunmen attacks on isolated police officers.
Two policemen attached to the Enugu State Police Command were killed by gunmen as they were conducting a stop-and-search along Presidential Road, Enugu, Governor Peter Mbah placed a ₦10 million bounty on the heads of the killers.
In another incident in the same state, gunmen murdered three police officers and one Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) personnel.
Efforts by the Nigerian government to address these security challenges include military operations, negotiations, and community-based interventions. However, these efforts have been criticized for their lack of coordination, inadequate funding, and insufficient focus on the underlying socio-economic issues driving the conflicts. As a result, achieving lasting peace and security remains a significant challenge for Nigeria.