Nigerians will head to the polls today, to vote for governors and members of the state legislative assemblies in 28 states.
The governorship elections come three weeks after the presidential and National Assembly elections, which saw the APC win the presidency and most seats in the federal legislature.
The LP, rejuvenated by the Obidient Movement, hopes to consolidate its gains from the last federal elections, while the PDP seeks to regain its traditional base in Southern Nigeria and take seats from the APC in Northern Nigeria.
The governorship elections will only be held in Abia, Ebonyi, and Enugu states in the South-east, while Anambra and Imo will have off-cycle elections later.
In the Niger Delta, APC, PDP, and LP will fight for the soul of the oil-rich states, including Rivers and Delta, where the battle is expected to be particularly tough.
Lagos State is the most interesting scene, where LP’s Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour will challenge APC’s Governor Babajide Sanwoolu with PDP’s Olajide ‘Jandor’ Adediran displaced.
GRV enjoys the support of the Igbo residents, while APC appeals largely to the Yoruba population. The contest has been reduced to an ethnic debate, with the risk of violence high.
In Oyo State, Governor Seyi Makinde faces a host of politicians, including his former allies working for APC’s Teslim Folarin.
Makinde is believed to be popular among the masses of the state, although his failure to support the PDP presidential candidate meant his party lost not only in the presidential election but also in national assembly elections in the state.
The governor is facing accusations of contract irregularities and violence by his loyalist, while local government administration has been enfeebled. However, Folarin’s campaign failed to capitalise on these flaws to turn the people against the governor.
Kaduna Governorship election is as interesting as it is unpredictable between APC’s Uba Sani of the APC and Isa Ashiru of the PDP. Jonathan Asake of LP is expected to have a good showing also.
Although the state is APC-controlled, historical voting patterns show that the APC and the PDP have won in Kaduna State. Kaduna State is a diverse state with various ethnic and religious groups, which makes it challenging for any candidate to win without a broad-based coalition of support. The APC and PDP have both tried to appeal to different ethnic and religious groups in the state, making the outcome of the election difficult to predict.
Although the incumbent governor, Nasir El-Rufai, is not running for re-election, his influence will still play a significant role in determining the outcome of the election. El-Rufai is a prominent figure in Kaduna politics, and his endorsement is significant.