According to the latest revenue fact sheet released by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria has recorded an impressive $11 billion in earnings from crude oil exports during the first half of this year. The report also predicts that Nigeria’s revenue is projected to increase to approximately $29 billion in the same period in 2024.
However, this figure represents a significant decrease compared to the $34 billion earned during the same period last year, as outlined in a report by the America Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Notably, Nigeria’s closest competitor on the continent, Angola, earned around $12 billion from oil exports during the mentioned period, while Saudi Arabia, the leading oil producer in OPEC, achieved an impressive $97 billion in revenue.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disclosed that in February, Nigeria exported an average of 0.86 million barrels of crude oil per day (mbpd). This number slightly decreased to 0.82 mbpd and 0.73 mbpd in May 2023.
Collectively, OPEC member countries earned a staggering $888 billion in revenue in net oil exports in 2022, experiencing an increase of nearly 43 percent compared to the previous year, according to the EIA. The EIA attributed this rise in net export revenue to higher crude oil prices and, to a lesser extent, increased petroleum liquids production.
In 2022, OPEC’s total oil exports reached almost 34.2 million barrels per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5 million barrels per day, as highlighted by the EIA fact sheet.
Looking ahead to 2023, the fact sheet projects a decrease in OPEC’s net revenue on oil exports to $656 billion. This decline is attributed to lower OPEC production resulting from the extension of the OPEC+ agreement, coupled with a decrease in crude oil prices.
The fact sheet also predicts a reduction in OPEC’s total oil liquids production to 33.5 million barrels per day in 2023, with the forecasted Brent spot price declining from $101 per barrel in 2022 to $80 per barrel. However, the organization anticipates a subsequent increase in OPEC’s net oil export revenue in 2024. Based on the June 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA states that OPEC’s net export revenue is expected to rise to $682 billion (in real $).
The EIA further adds that global crude oil prices are forecasted to increase in 2024, primarily driven by a decrease in global oil inventories over the next five quarters.
As per the fact sheet, the top five OPEC countries in terms of net revenue on oil exports are projected to remain the same in both 2023 and 2024, with some alterations in the exact figures.
Saudi Arabia secured the highest net oil export revenue among OPEC members last year, reaching $311 billion. Iraq followed in second place with $131 billion, the United Arab Emirates in third with $119 billion, Kuwait in fourth with $98 billion, and Iran in fifth with $54 billion.
For 2023, the fact sheet predicts Saudi Arabia’s net oil export revenue at $215 billion and $223 billion in 2024, while Iraq is projected to reach $96 billion in 2023 and $103 billion in 2024. The UAE is expected to generate $91 billion in 2023 and $92 billion in 2024, Kuwait $74 billion in 2023 and $77 billion in 2024, and Iran $44 billion this year and $48 billion next year.
