Rwanda’s decision to break diplomatic ties with Belgium last month is already rippling through sectors from healthcare to education, revealing deeper consequences than initially anticipated.
The move came after Belgium joined a chorus of international critics condemning Rwanda’s alleged support for the M23 rebel group in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the militia has captured large swathes of the mineral-rich region. In response, Kigali not only severed relations but also ordered a halt to all Rwandan organisations maintaining ties with Belgian institutions.
One of the first casualties was the Health Development Initiative, a Rwandan NGO focusing on sexual health issues, including condom distribution in schools and support for sex workers. Forced to return about $120,000 to its Belgian donor, the organisation now faces an uncertain future. “Maybe the government has tangible reasons for doing this… but we need to find a sustainable solution to funding,” said Aflodis Kagaba, the NGO’s executive director.
The timing could not have been worse, coming soon after the United States announced major cuts to its foreign aid, already weakening HIV prevention programmes targeting LGBTQ groups and sex workers in Rwanda.
Despite earlier assurances from both Kigali and Brussels that the diplomatic rift would not seriously affect ordinary residents or businesses, unexpected sectors have been hit. The Ecole Belge, a respected international school in Rwanda, was recently ordered to suspend its Belgian curriculum due to its embassy funding. “It is unfathomable that such a reputable and historical international school will adopt a Rwandan curriculum,” an anonymous education ministry official told AFP, suggesting the school might be forced to close.
Nevertheless, experts believe the broader financial damage may be contained. Belgium provides Rwanda with less than €20 million ($23 million) annually in development assistance. Phil Clark, a professor of international politics at London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, noted that while cuts to healthcare and education projects will be felt, Rwanda is likely to find alternative sources of funding. He warned, however, that it could push Kigali to further exploit mineral wealth from the DRC to compensate for the loss in foreign aid.
Clark added that the most significant blow could be the loss of Rwanda’s influence within the European Union, headquartered in Brussels.
Public opinion within Rwanda appears divided. Lawyer and political analyst Louis Gitinywa admitted Kigali was “not as clean as wool” in the dispute but backed the government’s robust stance. “Rwanda is a small country, but it is a state and it shouldn’t be bullied,” he said, accusing Belgium of fuelling regional tensions for its own strategic interests.
Gitinywa also argued that Rwanda’s intervention in the DRC stems from legitimate security concerns, particularly the threat posed by armed groups linked to the 1994 genocide. Nevertheless, he cautioned that Kigali must find more diplomatic ways to manage the fallout. “Rwanda needs to do more than call Belgians names. We need a long-term plan to soften the effects of the sanctions,” he concluded.
