Sudan is currently experiencing an escalation in violence as military and paramilitary forces vie for dominance, leaving little hope for a political resolution.
Since late October, clashes between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have intensified, with reports detailing attacks on civilians, including instances of sexual violence against women and girls.
The conflict, which erupted in April 2023, has led to what the United Nations describes as the worst displacement crisis in the world, displacing over 11 million people. The situation has pushed Sudan to the brink of famine and sparked warnings of further violence in a conflict that has already claimed tens of thousands of lives.
“Over the last two weeks, the situation in the country has been marked by some of the most extreme violence since the start of the conflict,” said Rosemary DiCarlo, UN Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs. She emphasized that both warring factions share responsibility for the ongoing violence, as they appear determined to achieve victory through military means.
According to UN data, at least 124 civilians have been killed in central Al-Jazira state since October 20, with an additional 135,000 people fleeing to other states.
As global attention shifts to other conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, civilians in Sudan continue to bear the brunt of escalating violence. “All indicators so far show that both sides are committed to military solutions, with no genuine interest in political resolutions or even easing the suffering of civilians,” stated Mohamed Osman from Human Rights Watch.
Amani al-Taweel, director of the Africa program at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, echoed this sentiment, noting that a political solution remains elusive. The conflict pits army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan against his former ally Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, leader of the RSF.
The country is effectively divided into control zones: the army dominates the north and east while maintaining a government presence in Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast. The RSF controls much of Khartoum and significant portions of Darfur and Kordofan. With no compulsory military conscription, the Sudanese army comprises various factions, including Islamist-leaning forces. The RSF primarily consists of tribal militias from Darfur’s Arab communities. Estimates suggest the army has around 120,000 troops, while the RSF fields approximately 100,000 fighters. The Sudanese air force provides a strategic advantage to the military.
Human rights organizations have accused both sides of committing atrocities. Recent reports from UN agencies detail harrowing accounts from women and girls fleeing violence; one survivor recounted being urged to take her own life rather than face rape. Despite multiple negotiations held in Saudi Arabia, efforts to establish a ceasefire have stalled.
In August, the Sudanese military withdrew from US-brokered talks in Switzerland, while African Union-led mediation initiatives faltered. Mahmud Zakaria, a political science professor at Cairo University, noted that “the deadlock in peaceful channels is exacerbating the violence. “Since October, RSF attacks have escalated in Al-Jazira state following what military officials described as a defection by one of its commanders to their side. Historically known as Sudan’s agricultural heartland—home to Africa’s largest cotton project—Al-Jazira is now embroiled in conflict.
The war’s roots can be traced back two decades to Darfur’s major conflict when government-aligned militias faced accusations of ethnic cleansing and genocide. The RSF emerged from these militias in 2013 and has since become a formidable force.
The ongoing conflict has attracted regional powers’ involvement, prompting calls from the United States for all nations to cease arms supplies to rival factions. Former Egyptian deputy foreign minister Ali el-Hefny emphasized that progress hinges on global willpower; however, he criticized foreign powers for exacerbating violence and hindering stability in Sudan.
The Sudanese army has accused the United Arab Emirates of supporting the RSF—a claim Abu Dhabi denies vehemently. In December, UN experts monitoring an arms embargo on Darfur deemed credible allegations that Abu Dhabi had supplied weapons to Daglo’s forces via cargo planes.
Conversely, RSF leaders have alleged Egyptian support for the army—a claim Cairo also refutes. As tensions rise and humanitarian conditions deteriorate further, it remains uncertain how long this cycle of violence will continue without decisive intervention from both local actors and international stakeholders.
