Is it Time for UNITA to Win or will the MPLA Remain in Power?
INTRODUCTION
On August 24, 2022, Angolans will choose their ruling party, as well as their President. What kind of scenario is waiting for us? Are we going to experience highly competitive multi-party elections like the one of 1992, where the two highly elected presidential candidates (Dr Jonas Savimbi and Engineer José Eduardo dos Santos) failed to reach the 50% threshold to be declared President of the Republic of Angola?
Or, are we going to experience disappointing scenarios like those from 2008 and onwards where there were a high number of questionable abstentions that benefited the ruling party, the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA); to the detriment of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) and other political parties?
In order to participate in this heated debate, I find it opportune to share this article from my unpublished research work.
BACKGROUND OF MULTI-PARTY ELECTIONS IN ANGOLA
Multi-party elections in Angola were unthinkable for the first 17 years after its independence in 1975, when the country plunged into civil war and was ruled by the communist one-party regime. The concept of multiparty elections was first evoked after the signing of the Bicesse Agreement on 31 May 1991 .
As a result, the first multi-party elections took place in Angola on 29 and 30 September 1992 to elect a National Assembly and a President. Unfortunately, it took another 16 years for second multi-party elections to be held in Angola, due to another civil war that erupted after the publication of the results of the 1992 presidential elections.
Although the civil war in Angola ended in 2002, after the death of UNITA’s charismatic leader, Jonas Savimbi, and the signing of the Luena Memorandum of Understanding , it was strange that the Angolan people had to wait more than six years for another multi-party election to take place.
The good news is that, so far, Angola has successfully organized three consecutive multi-party elections from 2008 onward. The bad news is that Angola is still ranked as an authoritarian regime in the Democracy Index. Thus, this article discusses the main negative results of multi-party elections that impede the democratization process in Angola and the well-being of the Angolan people.
RESEARCH DATA ANALYSIS
Among others, within the scope of my responsibilities during my two years tenure (2016 – 2018) as Senior Researcher and the Coordinator of the Center for Research and Analysis Polics and of Electoral Systems (Centro de Pesquisa e Análise de Políticas e de Sistemas Eleitorais – CIAPSE) in the Faculty of Social Sciences at Universidade Agostinho Neto (UAN); I carried out an in-depth comparative study of the four multi-party elections held so far in Angola. I used empirical data from each of the four elections using the two variables mentioned in Table 1 and then did a comparative study.
The number voters registered in each electoral year is used as the independent variable in this study. While, voter turnout on the one hand and voter abstention on the other are dependent variables.
The dependent variable “voter turnout” is split into two secondary variables. On the one hand the total votes for the ruling party, MPLA, and on the other hand, those of the opposition electoral political parties, UNITA+. The terminology UNITA+ is used to explain the extent to which it is so far the only major opposition party to the MPLA’s dominance. Thus, the other political parties complement the electoral and democratic process in Angola.
The number of blank and null votes in each of the four elections represents an insignificant ratio; it is therefore not included in the analysis. The main results of this research are represented in Figure 1 and Table 2.
Almost all of the 4,828,468 voters registered in 1992 voted with insignificant abstentions (8.65%) Unlike the highly competitive 1992 elections which could see either of the two presidential candidates (Jonas Savimbi and José Eduardo dos Santos) easily win the second round; the gap between the MPLA and UNITA+ increased dramatically in the 2008 elections from 6.13% to 29.39%. The level of electoral abstention in post-conflict Angola is alarming with 37% of the 9,757,671 registered voters not voting in 2012 constituting more than double those who voted for UNITA and other opposition parties. COMMENTS
As shown in Figure 1, instead of helping the consolidation of the democratization process in Angola, the four previous elections live us with contradictory and doubtful questions and hypotheses.
ELECTIONS 1992
Apparently, the 1992 elections were the most competitive in the history of Angola. One of the great revelations is the fact that the presidential candidate of the MPLA was not popular within his own political party, given that he failed to reach the 50% threshold to be elected president while his party got 54% in the parliamentary elections. Despite this, the mysterious question still remains to determine the main author of the 1992 post-election conflict. After all, who started the war and why? If the popular claim that it was Dr. Savimbi, who ordered the restart of the war is true; why should he make such a decision knowing that the second round of the presidential election was supposed to be 50 – 50, either him or dos Santos had an equal chance of winning?2008 ELECTIONS
These elections react to a set of questions linked to the way in which the entire process was conducted, the most important being associated with: Why did the MPLA government refuse to call elections soon after the signing of the Luena Memorandum of Understanding in 2002? Was this a strategy to buy time and establish strategies to win post-conflict elections with a large majority in parliament in order to impose its agenda unchallenged? Why did the MPLA refuse to organize general elections in 2008 as it was in 1992 to elect the President of the Republic of Angola on the one hand and the members of parliament on the other? Was the party afraid of an embarrassing experience whereby the party won parliamentary elections but failed to secure its president’s re-election? What happened to members and supporters of UNITA and other opposition parties? How to explain that opposition parties, especially UNITA, were highly competitive in 1992, but had disappointing results in 2008? With Unita winning just 16 seats in the national assembly, compared to 70 in 1992. Could it be that having won the majority of seats in parliament in 2008, the MPLA was given the green light to once again become a dominant authoritarian party and govern Angola as if it were a one-party system? The MPLA’s dominance in parliament was visible as it easily amended the Angolan constitution in 2010 to abolish presidential elections and institute parliamentary elections where the head of the list of the most voted party becomes president of the republic – so the presidential candidate simply gets beaten. bolei of your party to win and become president. And president with absolute powers. That is, the candidate of the most elected party immediately becomes president and assumes a legitimacy not attributed directly by the voting citizen, but by the party, which transfers competences gained through the vote to an individual, who simultaneously supersedes party and country power, with all the consequences arising from the difficulty of monitoring this figure. Trying to answer previous questions, one can question the transparency and fairness of the 2008 elections in Angola. Angolan political scientists and historians may consider conducting academic research to understand what went wrong in the 2008 elections and how it affects the process of democratization in the country.2012 ELECTIONS
An important phenomenon in the 2012 elections has to do with the level of abstention higher than the percentage of votes obtained by UNITA+: Although the MPLA slightly reduced the number of seats as a result of the 2012 elections from 191 to 175 of the 220 seats in parliament, it continued to enjoy its extreme dominance. One of the biggest stories is the fact that the results of the 2012 elections represent so far the peak of electoral abstention in the political history of Angola where 3,633,002 of the 9,757,671 registered voters did not vote – thus representing 37.23% abstention against only 16 .45% who voted for UNITA and other opposition parties!2017 ELECTIONS
Despite the change in the presidency of the MPLA, from José Eduardo dos Santos to João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço; the consequences of the 2017 elections show that the status quo prevails: UNITA and other opposition parties continue to have few seats in parliament to challenge the MPLA’s dominance in the drafting of laws that are calling into question the democratic process and the rule of law in Angola. Another alarming percentage of abstention from two fingerprints was recorded in 2017, this time 23% of 9,317,294 voters representing 2,142,978 voters did not vote. It could be argued that the continued record of such a large number of abstentions in conceivable post-conflict elections makes the electoral system and the democratization process in Angola questionable.OUTLOOK FOR THE 2022 ELECTIONS
The question of which party will win the August 24, 2022 elections has become a hot topic and difficult to answer. Trying to answer this answer, in the last 12 months I started informal conversations with 183 randomly selected people in Benguela, Luanda, Lubango, Luena and Saurimo.
As Figure 2 shows, these conversations center around the following simple question: Do you think the MPLA will win the next elections? Participants were people from different levels of society (academics, politicians, business people, members of civil society and ordinary people) as well as women and young people who were included in informal conversations to diversify opinions.
Although there are eight political parties competing in the August 2022 elections, it is evident that there are two horses competing for the grand prize of the presidency, namely Adalberto Costa Júnior and João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço. Which of the two presents itself as the best choice to become the next president of Angola after the elections of August 24, 2022?
More than a third, 36%, of the participants in my informal conversations believe that the 2022 elections represent an opportunity for UNITA to win elections, so Adalberto Costa Junior becoming president of the republic compared to only 17% who think that the MPLA will secure another major victory on August 24, 2022 to restore João Lourenço to power.
While 22% of the participants said that the MPLA will win the elections, but with a minority in parliament; 25% do not see a chance of victory for the MPLA unless the National Electoral Commission (CNE) manipulates the result in their favor.
THE DEAD IMPERATIVE AND THE SURVIVAL OF THE MPLA
On the streets of Luanda as in many other cities, urban and rural centers there is a growing feeling that the MPLA could lose these elections.
“You, what brought you here, what did you take for us? When are you going to start handing out money? Liars, this time we’re not going to vote for you.” I shout out to a villager who confused me with the MPLA propagandist when he was carrying out community work in the village of Luzi in the Municipality of Luchazes in the Province of Moxico.
What is strange is the fact that in the village of Luzi there is no internet or mobile network. Hence, one wonders where this feeling of revolt comes from. This explains the extent to which anti-MPLA sentiments have spread not only in big cities but also in rural areas.
Adalberto Costa Júnior has already come out with an allegation of fraud that none of the previous opposition presidential candidates have made, that more than 2.5 million of the Dead are registered to vote on August 24, 2022. Since then, there have been major contradictory debates on the matter. Complaints about the names of deceased persons who, having emigrated several years ago, took up residence abroad are multiplying and appear on the voters’ lists for the August general elections in Angola.
“Civic activist Luaty Beirão revealed that his rapper friend Carbono Casimiro also appears in the database as a voter, despite having died in 2019. Luaty Beirão’s father will also be registered to vote, although he died in 2006.”
While the CNE guarantees that the presence of the dead on electoral lists will not affect the results of the elections; Election analysts, members of opposition parties and civil society believe this is a visible sign of electoral fraud on the part of the ruling party.
Who knows whether data identifying the dead has ever been used to secure victories for the ruling party with the majority in previous post-conflict elections? If that is the case, can we evoke free, transparent and punctual elections in Angola?
Reflecting on this dilemma, the role of the international community in electoral assistance and supervision is crucial for the Angolan people to experience free, fair and transparent elections.
ARE THERE POSSIBILITIES OF POST-ELECTORAL CONFLICT IN ANGOLA?
There are rumors on the streets of Angola’s cities that the August 24, 2022 elections could result in violent conflicts if the MPLA does not win. Some are comparing this fifth multiparty election to the first in 1992, which was also competitive but ended in the worst civil war.
Borges Nanhirre, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in South Africa, also predicts a violent post-election conflict whether or not the MPLA wins the August 24 elections.
However, it should be remembered that the current situation in Angola is completely different from that of 1992, where the two main political parties (UNITA and MPLA) had their own armies and were ready to fight. Currently, since the signing of the Luena Memorandum of Understanding, on 24 April 2002, opposition parties in Angola remain peaceful and disarmed.
Therefore, pessimists may suspect that the rhetoric of conflict can be used by MPLA militants to create fear and intimidate the general public into voting for the MPLA anyway, to the detriment of UNITA and other opposition parties. Of course, this can jeopardize the process of democratization and eradication of poverty in Angola.
A question of mine, what kind of post-election conflict is Borges predicting in Angola? Will the MPLA government order its police and army to shoot innocent and unarmed civilians who demonstrate their democratic rights?
Critics argue that in 1992, the MPLA escaped any investigation for its widespread post-electoral massacres across the country as it accused UNITA of starting the war while the accused never officially denied the MPLA’s charge.
Therefore, it has to be argued that any attempt by the MPLA to order its police to open fire on incited and unarmed civilians during or after the elections of August 24, 2022, would easily be considered a crime against humanity. This would give the mandate to the international community to act so that those responsible can be brought to the international court of justice in The Hague, the Netherlands.
CONCLUSION
To summarize, let’s repeat the initial question, which party will win on August 24, 2022? Will Adalberto Costa Júnior be the next president of the Republic of Angola or will João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço guarantee the second term?
If elections were free, fair and transparent (where the police do not oppress voters and the CNE does not manipulate the voting process and results); looking at its list of candidates, UNITA has a chance to dramatically increase its seats in parliament. Likewise, both Adalberto Costa Júnior and João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço are in the same fight to secure the chair of president of the republic.
It may be that what prevents João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço from winning the second term is not only the fiercer competition from Adalberto Costa Júnior but the internal revolt within his own party of the so-called Maribondos for the following reasons.
First of all, many Angolans, not just the Maribondos, criticize João Lourenço’s fight against corruption for being selective. While few, mainly some of the former president’s sons, namely Isabel dos Santos, José Filomeno de Sousa dos Santos and Tchizé dos Santos; they were persecuted and their goods were confused; many corrupt people are protected in Angola by the same regime.
Second, the way João Lourenço and his government dealt with the physical demise of former president José Eduardo dos Santos upset some influential members of the MPLA. A big fight broke out over the burial of José Eduardo dos Santos with Dos Santos’ eldest children on one side and his widow, Ana Paula dos Santos, younger children and the Angolan government on the other.
President João Lourenço decreed the creation of a government commission to organize a state funeral for his predecessor in the capital Luanda. Unfortunately, this was a huge failure, as Dos Santos’ eldest children filed suit in court in Barcelena to take custody of the body and have the body in Spain. This fight was led by Tchize dos Santos and she informed that the measure is to prevent her father’s death from being exploited for political ends by the current president João Lourenço for his reelection.
Even so, on August 16, 2022, the Barcelona court ordered the delivery of the body of former Angolan leader José Eduardo dos Santos to his widow, Ana Paula Cristovão dos Santos and granted authorization for “the repatriation and international transfer of (his) mortal remains” to Angola; the timing is not right, as the majority of the Angolan people are focused on the upcoming elections and this news can be considered a political distraction.
In conclusion, it can be argued that the internal rebellion João Lourenço is facing is even greater than the external electoral competition and attacks. This could easily compromise his chance of being reelected if Adalberto Costa Júnior and his UNITA party take advantage of this window of opportunity.
Of course, the prospect of post-election unrest or conflict should not be overlooked. Thus, on Sunday, August 21, 2022, an ecumenical service will be held at the 50,000-seat stadium in Luanda for Angolans of different denominations, men and women, children, youth and adults to implore Almighty God for peaceful elections and their results.
However, to summarize, when there are clear indications of electoral fraud, people should not refrain, through police oppression, from exercising their democratic rights to seek clarification and verification of electoral results. However, if there is clear evidence from independent international and national observers that the elections were transparent, free and fair; whoever loses must quickly admit defeat to allow the country to move forward peacefully in the struggle to promote the rule of law, including economic growth and good governance.
~Francisco Kapalu Ngongo, PhD
*Francisco Kapalu Ngongo, PhD is a political economy expert with over 15 years of experience in research, teaching, engagement and project evaluation on human rights, development and peace-building, public health among others.
