In a recent surge of analyses conducted by US intelligence agencies, a warning has been issued regarding the significant growth of Hamas’ credibility and influence in the aftermath of the October 7 attack on Israel and the subsequent military response.
Despite being designated a terrorist group by the United States and Europe, Hamas has successfully portrayed itself as the sole armed group resisting what is perceived as a brutal oppressor, gaining support across the world.
Hamas’ influence has notably expanded since the October attack, where it allegedly claimed the lives of approximately 1,200 individuals. The group has capitalised on its operational success, securing the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for hostages held since the attack.
Videos and images showing civilian suffering in Gaza have gone viral on social media worldwide, contributing to a boost in the popularity of Hamas.
Contrary to its previous standing, Hamas is now regarded as more popular, particularly in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where it is increasingly seen as actively opposing the Israeli occupation. Polls indicate a surge in support for Hamas in the West Bank, contrasting with Gaza.
US officials are expressing concerns over the potential global impact of Hamas’ growing success, fearing it may inspire terrorist groups worldwide. Law enforcement agencies, both in the United States and Europe, are intensifying efforts to identify and disrupt potential lone-wolf attackers inspired by Hamas.
The assessments highlight the complexity of Israel’s goal to “eradicate” Hamas, acknowledging the challenge of defeating an ideology on the battlefield. As the conflict unfolds, there is uncertainty about the duration of Hamas’ enhanced credibility and influence, with ongoing monitoring of key indicators to gauge its lasting impact.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has emphasised the need for Hamas to cease hostilities, while even some analysts in Israel suggest that a complete defeat of Hamas is unrealistic. Instead, there are discussions about potential post-conflict governance structures that may involve incorporating Hamas into the Palestine Liberation Organisation.
As the conflict continues, there is a growing awareness that Israel’s military campaign, aimed at crippling Hamas, may unintentionally legitimise the group politically and paradoxically. The evolving situation poses challenges for Israel, raising questions about the effectiveness of its approach and the potential consequences for regional and global security.