Current trends from the crude oil industry in Angola and Nigeria, as US – China trade war and Iran sanctions continue to determine prices and production.
Angola
The anticipation of lower prices for crude oil by European refiners is affecting Angola’s sale for June. Another reason for the glut is China’s extended purchases of previous months.
Oil majors are keeping their own stock and not selling while watching new harsher tariffs unfold in the U.S – China trade war.
Analysts are speculating that China could defy the U.S. and buy from Iran if their negotiations go south. The shortage from Iran could be eased with crude from Angola’s Dalia output of the same quality.
The price of crude could drop further if Saudi Arabia decides to increase output.
Nigeria
Force Majeure declaration of Amenam stream and Bonny Light Crude from the Nembe Creek Trunk pipeline has affected the output. Incidentally, the available cargoes for June have not been entirely sold despite European gas cracks and increase demand from the U.S.
The Europeans seem to be more interested in Russia despite their crude output being not of the same high impurity free grade as Nigeria’s oil.
Iran sanctions should have led to more sales for Nigeria. Particularly, since India, Iran’s second main customer had not increased Nigeria orders to make up for the shortfall.
After a series of unexpected market moves, heavy, sour crude oil processed by U.S. refiners has become more expensive, eating up hope for profit windfalls before they even materialized and forcing refiners to rethink plans to invest more in heavy crude processing units.
Meanwhile, the Sinopec Group and China’s CNPC, the country’s top state-owned refiners, are skipping Iranian oil purchases for loading in May after Washington ended sanction waivers to turn up pressure on Tehran with the stand-off at the discussion on ending the U.S. – China Trade War, however, the Chinese could reverse it as defiance.
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