In a week where anti-western sentiments threatened to surface in Ghana, sentiments against the Nigerian Army following its failure to stop another massacre soared. This was compounded by the disappearance of soldiers in a forewarned attack, heightened violence ahead of a state election, and spiralling sexual violence, which highlights a creeping challenge.
Just across the border in Niger, enough might finally be enough.
Northern Nigeria
In the Benue State incident, the killing of the Labour Party chairman, Mr Sunday Oche, highlights the immediate threat of continued attacks on farmers in rural areas. Benue has long been a hotspot for farmer-herder conflicts. The immediate risk includes further ambushes and killings, mainly as herders, often armed, can easily target vulnerable farmers working in isolated areas.
There is also the potential for an escalation of ethnic or communal violence, especially if affected communities choose to retaliate. This violence is often driven by land use disputes, where competition for resources like grazing land arises between the two groups. These communities remain highly vulnerable without adequate protection and rapid law enforcement response. To address these risks, increasing security patrols in rural farming areas and promoting peaceful dialogue between farmers and herders is recommended.
Bandits are threatening residents with violence if they don’t leave their homes. These bandits are likely seeking to intimidate the community to protect their illegal mining interests, especially after residents reported their activities to the police.
The bandits’ capability to invade homes, destroy property, and issue death threats indicates they are well-armed and organised, posing a major threat. With male defenders away at work, residents are particularly vulnerable. Enhancing local security or vigilante groups and investigating illegal mining operations fuelling the unrest is crucial
South East Nigeria
The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) continued attempts to delegitimise the Nigerian state through attacks that continue unabated in Anambra and Imo. These two states still rank higher than their peers regarding incident reports in the past year.
The vulnerabilities of these institutions are clear, as attackers seem to act with relative impunity, especially in nighttime operations. The people no longer view security personnel and checkpoints as sources of safety but rather as means of extortion. They now blame the rising prices of food on the security forces and the road safety corps, citing the extensive extortion at numerous roadblocks across the region.
The immediate threat includes ongoing attacks on police and vigilante units, which could lead to a breakdown in local security and further embolden militant groups.
South-South Nigeria
Piracy in Nigerian waters is a problem that does not receive as much attention as other violent conflicts in the country, but it remains a significant issue. In the Bonny-Port Harcourt waterway incident, at least ten maritime travellers were reportedly abducted by sea pirates. This attack highlights the vulnerability of the region’s waterways, which are crucial for local travel and economic activities.
While piracy in Nigeria may not be as prominent as other security threats, such as banditry or terrorism, it continues to disrupt lives and livelihoods.
In the second incident, involving the abduction and rape of a 14-year-old girl in the Ogba/Egbema LGA, two brothers were reported to have assaulted the girl as she walked along a lonely path. A similar incident happened in the Aniocha North LGA of Delta State, where a 15-year-old girl was abducted, raped, and killed.
The immediate concern is the unchecked spread of sexual violence, which could embolden other perpetrators if proper justice is not served. This type of crime leaves deep emotional and psychological scars on victims while also undermining community trust and safety.
Both incidents emphasise the urgent need for stronger security measures across different fronts. The maritime sector must increase naval patrols, strengthen communication between local maritime authorities and security forces, and improve surveillance to deter pirate attacks.
South West Nigeria
In the case of Habeebah Akinsanya’s kidnapping and murder, education is a fundamental pillar for development. When students are abducted or harmed, it sends a message of fear and insecurity that can deter families from prioritising education. This also worsens existing social inequalities as schools and educational institutions become unsafe, particularly for those in vulnerable communities.
These crimes threaten the stability of the education system. If left unchecked, they could lead to school closures, reduced attendance, and a potential brain drain as families and individuals seek safer environments for learning.
The mob violence in Ikenne LGA, Ogun State, where a civilian was clubbed to death and set ablaze over bike theft, is a dangerous act. It bypasses due process, causing irreversible harm and wrongful targeting of potentially innocent individuals. The consequences include loss of life, damaged social cohesion, fear, eroded trust between citizens and authorities, and a cycle of violence where retaliation becomes common.
CHAD
There are alarming reports of sexual violence and other grave protection abuses from those seeking refuge in Chad. The recent conflict in Sudan began in April 2023 and quickly spread beyond the capital of Khartoum to other parts of the country.
Within a month, some 80,000 refugees had already crossed the border into Chad and the numbers have escalated since then. The United Nations (UN) human rights office said in a report in late February that scores of people, including children, have been subjected to rape and other forms of sexual violence in the ongoing conflict in Sudan, assaults that may amount to war crimes.
The report found that at least 118 people had been subjected to sexual violence, including rape — with many of the assaults committed by members of the paramilitary forces, in homes and on the streets. One woman, the UN said, “was held in a building and repeatedly gang-raped over a period of 35 days.” Conditions in the Chadian refugee camp are not optimised for care, given how perilously insecure the camps are. This insecurity makes it easy for militias to invade and carry out acts of violence against displaced persons.
NIGER
CICO’s arrest spree coincides with the junta’s launch of two major military operations: Operation Almah in the Tillaberi region, on the left bank of the Niger River, and Operation Garkoua in the Agadez region, both aimed at rooting out criminals. Despite the stated locations, it is difficult to determine which operation targets specific armed groups.
While Tillaberi is an Islamic State stronghold, the Islamic State–Sahel Province’s (ISSP) 2024 activity has been overshadowed by its al-Qaeda rivals, and they are likely to suffer the most from this raid.