Africa’s ‘coup belt’ is springing back to life. Mutinous soldiers are taking the initiative. From one country to the other, the success of military takeovers is egging others on. Who knows who’s next? Well, not even the sitting Presidents.
As the guns went blazing again in Guinea Bissau, right at the seat of government, the people genuinely hoped the military had their way. The pains of the past are easy to hold on to if the present has no good memories. In these countries, pains have replaced anguish, and as it appears, the die is cast.
In less than two years, Africa has had at least five coup attempts, and four of them were successful. In Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and the far East in Sudan, there have been military takeovers. The risk of this is that the people will also bear the brunt. In Bamako, where Colonel Assimi Goita has refused to leave office in a swift turnaround from the previous agreement, the interim Malian government is cutting ties with France and finding new partners in Russia. And there lies the reality; the neocolonialist impression and sense of servitude to foreign direction is still largely palpable, even in a military junta.
The strong-faced, hard-stanced Col. Mamady Doumbouya may be seeking a soft way out in Guinea but nobody knows what’s in the pipeline. At the moment, it looks the government only desires a good democratic transition, but as shown in Mali, there’s a lot on the mind of a soldier. While both nations presented different situations, with the military stopping another overbearing President in Conakry, Mali had a new friend in Burkina Faso when leader of the Patriotic Movement for Preservation and Restoration (MPSR), Lt. Col Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba led soldiers to take charge in Ouagadougou. Like Malians, Burkinabes had seen enough of the spate of killings. Locals trooped to the streets in celebration, happy to see the back of an ineffective leadership that has put the people in harm’s way.
Insurgency is ripping the West African Sahel apart and virtually every country has had a taste of the bile. In the last six years, more than 2000 Burkinabes have died and many have been rendered homeless. The statistics are more dire when the entire West African Sahel is factored. The people, other than having their lives placed before a bullet, are also not enjoying the dividends of democracy. They now protest against ECOWAS sanctions against the military and when the people celebrate the presence of the military, they’ve lost faith in democracy.
Democracy in Africa is tested to its head and only a critical turnaround will save other countries who are currently at the risk of military takeovers. In countries like Niger, which only had its first democratic transition in 60 years recently, it also risks such. Senegal, where the youths are protesting against President Macky Sall’s highhanded governance should also watch its back, especially considering that it has not had any till now. Its political stability must be protected. There has been a downturn in its fortunes in recent times. The militaries of these nations are being encouraged to latch on to their current travails and they have the people behind them. How tightly democracy sits will be a reflection of the desire of their nationals.
As seen in Sudan where the people have cried foul against the military, what happens to democracy is dependent on its acceptance by the people. If West and Central African governments do not protect their people and make lives better, the military will be moved to feast through the cracks.
Guinea-Bissau is yet another victim, although the President Umaro Sissoco Embalo has claimed it was unsuccessful, but that only suggests that there’s fire on the rooftop. It has had nine coup attempts since 1980 and is a global transit point for drug peddlers, giving it the “Narco-state” tag. All is not well, and the nation’s economy is in dire straits. There are more than enough instability indices for the military to base its actions on, albeit, they don’t foster development neither do they mean betterment.
ECOWAS should preach wisdom to its leaders, make them smell the cookie and see that the people are turning their backs on democracy. In their minds, it has failed them. The bloc can’t always wait to sanction a government supported by the people. It also owes the people the responsibility of sanctioning those nations’ leaders when they fail to do the minimum.
It’s not a good sight that democracy is failing in West Africa, and the people have seen it all, and are forced to choose between two evils. As it stands, it looks as though they’ve seen enough of the soft-shelled, pocket-filled, ineffective democrats. Dining with the military is a risk, and the people know it. Supporting coups is a direction they’d never have imagined, and the death of democracy isn’t one they’d have ever hoped to celebrate. Now, it’s time to face their demons.