Weeks after slipping undetected into Mali’s capital, militants launched a pre-dawn attack just before morning prayers, killing dozens of students at an elite police training academy. They also stormed Bamako’s airport and set the presidential jet ablaze.
The September 17 assault was the boldest attack in a Sahel capital since 2016. It demonstrated the ability of terrorist groups linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State, whose rural insurgency has ravaged Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, to strike directly at the center of power.
Though often overshadowed by conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan, the ongoing violence in the Sahel is driving a surge in migration towards Europe. With anti-immigrant sentiment rising and some EU nations tightening borders, the conflict is intensifying a crisis. According to the U.N.’s International Organisation for Migration (IOM), the route to Europe seeing the steepest increase in migrants this year is from West African coastal nations to Spain’s Canary Islands.
IOM data shows that the number of migrants arriving in Europe from Sahel countries, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger, rose 62% in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year, due largely to conflict and climate change. Experts warn that jihadist-controlled areas in the Sahel could serve as training grounds for further attacks on major cities like Bamako or on neighboring states and Western targets.
Jihadi violence, particularly its toll on government troops, has fueled military coups since 2020 in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. These coups toppled Western-backed governments and led to new alliances with Russian forces, including the Wagner Group. Despite this, these juntas continue to lose ground to insurgents. Caleb Weiss, an expert on terrorism, warned that the instability could soon result in the creation of insurgent-controlled states in the region.
Western powers, having previously played a key role in combating jihadists in the Sahel, now have little presence on the ground. The U.S. and French forces that once supported regional armies with intelligence and air strikes have been expelled, leaving jihadist groups free to operate across vast areas of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Violent incidents involving these groups have nearly doubled since 2021, with an average of 224 attacks per month in 2024.
The worsening security situation is exacerbating migration, with rising numbers of women and families fleeing the violence. Burkina Faso, where al-Qaeda-linked militants massacred hundreds of civilians in the town of Barsalogho in August, has become a global terrorism hotspot. The country recorded 1,907 terrorism-related deaths in 2023, representing 25% of the world’s total. About half of Burkina Faso is now outside of government control.
Insurgent groups in the Sahel, particularly al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM and Islamic State factions, continue to expand their influence by offering services and establishing governance structures in neglected rural communities. These groups receive financial support and training from global networks but also fund their operations by taxing areas they control and seizing weapons from government forces.
European governments are divided on how to respond, with some countries advocating dialogue with the Sahelian juntas and others objecting due to concerns over human rights. Despite the lack of a unified European strategy, experts warn that the Sahel could evolve into a base for global terrorism, much like Afghanistan or Libya in the past. Although the terror groups have not yet declared an intent to target Europe or the U.S., the risk of the region becoming a launchpad for such attacks remains a growing concern.
Experts argue that the military juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso need new strategies to counter the terrorist threat, as current efforts have failed to stem the tide of violence.
