With six months remaining until the elections, the campaign in the Democratic Republic of Congo is becoming increasingly tense. The opposition strongly opposes a regime determined to retain power, all against a backdrop of conflict in the East and a social crisis.
The country, with a population of approximately 100 million, is scheduled to hold a single-round presidential election on December 20. Additionally, elections for national and provincial deputies, as well as local councillors, will take place. Félix Tshisekedi, serving as President since January 2019, is seeking a second five-year term.
Having experienced the previous elections, which were delayed for two years, some Congolese still doubt the timely organisation of the upcoming vote. They anticipate what they refer to as a “landslide.”
However, the authorities insist that the elections will indeed occur “within the constitutional time frame.” Moreover, the National Electoral Commission (CENI) has thus far adhered to its schedule.
The CENI has enrolled voters and issued them with cards, enabling the revision of the electoral register. The register underwent an “external audit” and served as the basis for the law regarding the “distribution of seats.” Parliament promptly passed this law, which was subsequently promulgated on 15 June.
In terms of technicalities, Trésor Kibangula, a political analyst at the Ebuteli research institute, notes that “the CENI has demonstrated its ability to meet deadlines, making a postponement increasingly unlikely.”
However, confidence and transparency present a separate issue.
Towards the end of the previous year, Ebuteli expressed concern that the electoral process was “badly underway,” raising the risk of “violent demonstrations.” The highly controversial composition of the CENI itself and the Constitutional Court were at the heart of the matter.
“From a legal perspective, the government possesses all the levers,” shares an anonymous observer of Congolese politics.
For several weeks now, groups of four opposing presidential candidates, including Martin Fayulu, Moïse Katumbi, Matata Ponyo, and Delly Sesanga, have been organising demonstrations. They demand an overhaul of these institutions, as they believe the current setup will result in fraud and chaos.
These opponents argue that the electoral register is “fanciful” due to the impossibility of conducting enrolment in territories plagued by armed violence. Additionally, they contest the “audit,” which was completed within a record five-day time frame.
“Election Dynamics”
On 20 May, the police brutally suppressed one of their marches, triggering significant protests from the influential Catholic Church, civil society, and the international community. Around fifteen embassies issued a joint declaration calling for “competitive, peaceful, inclusive, and transparent” elections.
Meanwhile, the camp of former president Joseph Kabila (2001-2019) has urged its supporters to boycott the electoral process.
According to Trésor Kibangula, there remains “a chance to restore public confidence” by organising “a new independent and transparent audit of the electoral register.” The analyst suggests that this could help reduce political tensions without necessitating a postponement of the vote.
“The opposition continues to demand transparency guarantees, but simultaneously, it must begin preparing” for the elections, added the analyst.
Alphonse Maindo, a professor of political science, is among those who believe that holding “good elections” on December 20 is impossible. Instead, he advocates a “transition” period that allows the country to adequately prepare for the elections by mobilising the necessary resources.
The upcoming months are anticipated to be volatile, marked by demonstrations, arrests, and trials, warns the academic. Last year, Alphonse Maindo was one of the signatories of a declaration urging Denis Mukwege, the renowned doctor and Nobel Peace Prize laureate for his work on behalf of rape victims, to enter the presidential race. However, Mukwege has not yet revealed his intentions.
Observers also expect a high level of abstention due to a lack of confidence in the electoral process and the overall political class. Many Congolese, grappling with unemployment and inflation, are primarily concerned with providing for their families.
Although the Democratic Republic of Congo possesses vast underground resources, two-thirds of its population lives below the poverty line.
As the nation heads towards the elections, tensions continue to rise, and the quest for transparency and confidence in the electoral process remains at the forefront. The coming months will undoubtedly shape the future of the Democratic Republic of Congo, with profound implications for its citizens and the wider international community.
