The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has projected that the global unemployment rate will rise to 5.2% in 2024, primarily due to an increase in joblessness in advanced economies. The findings were disclosed in the ILO’s 2024 World Employment and Social Outlook report, released on Wednesday.
According to the report, the number of unemployed individuals is expected to increase by 2 million, causing a slight uptick in the global unemployment rate from 5.1% in 2023 to 5.2% in 2024. Richard Samans, the director of ILO’s research department, explained, “We are projecting a modest fall in performance on labour markets, in part because growth is decelerating around the world.”
The United Nations agency highlighted that, following a brief growth spurt during countries’ recovery from the pandemic, aggregate labour productivity growth has quickly reverted to the low pace observed over the previous decade. The report pointed out that during periods of slow productivity growth, real disposable income and wages are often vulnerable to sudden price shocks.
The ILO report indicated that minimal employment gains are expected in upper-middle-income countries over the next two years. However, it noted that job gains in low- and lower-middle-income countries are anticipated to remain robust. The report raised concerns about the situation in high-income countries, where employment growth is expected to turn negative in 2024, with only modest improvements anticipated in 2025.
“The situation is particularly concerning in high-income countries, where employment growth is expected to turn negative in 2024 and only modest improvements are anticipated in 2025,” the ILO said.