It will certainly not be a friendly reunion when, for the first time, a current United States President will debate his predecessor in office in what will be the second time Donald Trump and Joe Biden take to the debate stage in four years.
As Trump never conceded the 2020 election to President Biden and refused to attend his successor’s inauguration, the bad blood between the two men still lingers and will be renewed again in Atlanta on Thursday as they go head-to-head in a CNN-mediated debate.
The atmosphere will be charged as the two men make their case to US voters for their November ballots. The outcome of this debate could significantly impact the upcoming election, ratcheting up the stakes even higher than before.
Historical Acrimony
Thursday’s upcoming debate marks Biden and Trump’s first joint appearance since their encounters four years ago. The last debate in 2020 was notably contentious, marked by frequent interruptions and Mr. Biden’s exasperated plea, “Will you shut up, man?”
The two men did not shake hands at the start of the second debate that year, which was delayed by Trump’s Covid diagnosis. Tellingly, neither has participated in any debate in nearly four years, as Trump skipped the Republican primary debates earlier this year, confident he will become the party’s presumptive nominee.
Incumbent presidents often struggle in their first re-election debate as they may appear rusty or unaccustomed to being challenged after spending four years in the White House bubble. In this instance, both candidates could encounter that same challenge.
What to Expect
Unlike previous debates, this will be without a live audience, at the request of the Biden campaign and will also feature muted microphones for candidates when the other is speaking, hopefully preventing it from degenerating into the chaos surrounding the debate in 2020.
President Biden has come under attack as being senile and a shell of the man he once was. The criticism of these attacks has tapped into real voter worries about having an older president, but it has also created low expectations for Mr. Biden’s performance. However, he has consistently surpassed these expectations, as demonstrated by his lively State of the Union address in March.
Trump’s campaign has also made allegations that Mr Biden will require the aid of drugs to remain coherent throughout the debate, a claim which Biden’s team has strongly refuted. However, amplifying such speculations could set the stage for potential post-debate justifications if the president outshines his predecessor on Thursday.
Experts say if the former president can maintain his calm for the duration of the debate and trim his sharp edges, it may go a long way to convince the American public that the dire warnings about a potentially dictatorial second Trump term in office are exaggerated.
What are the Issues at Stake?
Both seem to have strong points on policies, but as always, which Americans would prioritise will decide the outcome of the elections.
Opinion polls indicate that Trump trumps Biden on the economy and immigration – which may likely be the two most important issues for many voters. At the same time, the president was favoured on abortion, healthcare and the environment.
So, the candidate who effectively delivers memorable lines showcasing their strengths and skillfully defends their weaknesses could emerge as the winner of Thursday night’s debate.
Will President Biden be concise enough to piercingly convey to voters that he acknowledges their concerns about the surge in immigration but has faced obstacles from Republicans in addressing it, or will former President Trump be able to reassure voters that another term in office wouldn’t result in more stringent restrictions on abortion, considering that he appointed three Supreme Court justices who ended up voting to overturn federal abortion rights?
President Biden has been trying to persuade the American public for over a year that the economy is performing better than their perceptions. He will have another opportunity to present his case to an audience of tens of millions. Nevertheless, he must prepare for vicious attacks from his opponent, who is expected to concentrate on the high inflation that Americans have experienced in recent years.
Last week, the Biden campaign launched a new series of advertisements directly attacking Trump for his recent criminal felony conviction in a New York court.
Trump will undoubtedly be quizzed about his historic court case. President Biden will be poised to deal a blow if the opportunity presents itself, especially if the former president gets true to himself and gets drawn into a tirade against corrupt judges and rigged courts.
Recent polls have indicated that the guilty verdict has cost Donald Trump support among the independent voters who could prove decisive in this election.
However, the former president may get back at Biden through his son Hunter’s gun case. Trump may aim to use Hunter Biden’s legal issues to suggest a broader pattern of corruption within what he refers to as the “Biden crime family.”
Home Run
The upcoming presidential debate is making history as the earliest one in modern US history. It’s happening before either candidate becomes the official nominee of their party. This means that the debate could significantly alter the tone and direction of the upcoming campaign, helping to solidify some loosely held views about the candidates and provide a more precise definition of the issues and stakes around November’s vote.
Unless one of the candidates makes a truly disastrous error, both contenders will have an opportunity to recover from any harm during their tightly orchestrated national conventions, slated for later in the summer. Another debate set for September might serve to diminish the impact of this week on voters’ memories.
